Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 252236
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
331 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006

NVC003-252241-
/O.CAN.KVEF.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-060725T2245Z/
CLARK NV-
335 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS 
WEAKENED AND THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH 
WERE REPORTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY ALONG WITH RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS TO NEAR .3 INCHES.

LAT...LON 3594 11522 3583 11509 3594 11495 3603 11509

$$


JS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE REGION STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY LATE WEEK...MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT NO
VISIBLE FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAT HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...319 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR TONOPAH LATE LAST EVENING
SHOT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO CLARK COUNTY. AT 3 AM RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK BELIEF ONLY ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE LEFT SHOULD
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

NAM MODEL OF CHOICE AGAIN TODAY AS MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT MORE
REASONABLE. SATELLITE SHOWS MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. H5 HIGH CENTER WILL WOBBLE WEST TODAY OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH WITH WEAK RIPPLE STILL EVIDENT IN
STREAMLINES ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH/LINCOLN COUNTY THAT WILL PRODUCE
AN AREA OF H8-H7 CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST CLARK/NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY HIGH CENTER
WOBBLES BACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AN UPSWING POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM POTENTIAL GULF SURGE SPREADS NORTHWARD
WITH PWS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...LATEST NHC TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE NOTED EXCEPTION THAT THEY HAVE
PLACED IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH INSTEAD OF WEST. THIS MEANS A SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL
INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER TONIGHT AND BRINGS UP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH INTO OUR CWA FROM EMILIA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ENDED UP BUMPING UP POPS JUST A BIT TO PUT THE EASTERN HALF AT A
MINIMUM OF 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHER POPS OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. PWS
PROGGED TO BE UP TO AND INCH AND A HALF AS FAR NORTH AS LINCOLN
COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A FORECASTED WAVE SHOULD
MAKE FOR A VERY ACTIVE TRANSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OTHER PLAYER
WILL BE A 40 TO 50 KT JET OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU
GO...THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF STORMS. NO CLEAR
SOLUTION YET AS TO WHEN THE EVENT WILL REALLY START TO WIND DOWN.
FOR NOW DROPPED POPS DOWN A BIT IN DAYS SEVEN AND EIGHT AS IT LOOKS
LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DIVERTED FURTHER TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON AS ANY STORMS COULD MAKE
HIGHS LESS THAN EXPECTED. DECIDED TO DROP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AS
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN
RECENTLY.
&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS ALL CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AROUND
ANY STORMS THAT FORM. TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS... KVGT...
KDRA... KBIH... KDAG... KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

HARRISON/PIERCE/BELL

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
855 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-261600-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
855 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 /855 AM MST TUE JUL 25 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO BUT JUST UNDER EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL STORMS EMELIA PASSING JUST WEST OF BAJA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THAT DOES OCCUR.