Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS85 KVEF 100429
RFWVEF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
929 PM PDT FRI JUN 9 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

NVZ461-462-100530-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-060610T0400Z/
LINCOLN COUNTY/ELY DISPATCH-NYE COUNTY DESERTS/LAS VEGAS DISPATCH-
929 PM PDT FRI JUN 9 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED AT THIS TIME. AT THE
SAME TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE. THIS
COMBINATION OF DECREASE WINDS AND SLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
HAS ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 PM PDT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
238 PM PDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM....A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEVADA PROVIDING DYNAMICS FOR ALL THE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE NORTH OF THE CWA. ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS FIRED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST/NORTHCENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOME
SEVERE ACTIVITY AS WELL. AND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE ELKO AND SALT LAKE CITY
AREAS. CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER AS AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING HOT...DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT DAY 3 WITH A LOW SETTING UP OFF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. STRENGTH OF RESULTING WIND SPEED
OVER THE AREA WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE
NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY. ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z
ECMWF RUN COMES AROUND MORE TOWARDS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL SCENARIO IS FOR THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER WEST
TX/NM TO MOVE EAST AS TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND SLOWLY.
MODELS DIFFER IN EXACT TIMING AND DEPTH. LEANED TOWARDS A GFS/GEM
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SEE THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
CHALLENGES FOR THE EXTENDED ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. DID NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS WIND FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THEN FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME
A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES TWEAKED A BIT TO BRING THEM CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE WHICH FINALLY LOOKS REASONABLE. HAVE ALSO PUT IN MORE
SILENT TEN PERCENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH DUE TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
AND TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING FORECASTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. RH VALUES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL OVER SOUTHERN NYE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE
35 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWERING RH AND
GUSTY WINDS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING SHORTLY THAT WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONES 461 AND 462 THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. HOT
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND WITH GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS DEVELOPING...MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT WILL DEFER TO THE EVENING
SHIFT AFTER THE 00Z MODEL DATA CAN BE ANALYZED.

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS...
KVGT...KDRA...KBIH...KDAG...KEED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONES 461 AND 462 UNTIL 9 PM.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

SALMEN/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS