Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS85 KVEF 230153
RFWVEF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
653 PM PDT SAT APR 22 2006

AZZ102-230300-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060423T0200Z/
NORTHWEST DESERTS-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-
653 PM MST SAT APR 22 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. 

WINDS WERE DECREASING IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

$$

MORGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
335 AM PDT SAT APR 22 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY SPREADING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE COOLER AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONTEREY WILL STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY OR SLOWLY WOBBLE SOUTH DOWN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LAST EVENING HAS SINCE LIFTED
NORTHWARD WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE OWENS VALLEY. SKIES CLEAR
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING LOW
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY. BEST
LIFT AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. DRY SLOT WILL KEEP THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA DRY
ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD START SEEING SOME FLAT CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL NEARS.
UPPER LOW STARTS ITS SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER INYO... ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES A
SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS ACROSS THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS
WILL END OUT WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE UTAH BORDER AS LOW DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NEXT TROUGH SLATED TO IMPACT THE AREA NEAR THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY THEN COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR SAN DIEGO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A CHECK OF THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWS A
FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS. DECIDED
TO TAKE A CAUTIOUS APPROACH FOR NOW BUT DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NORTH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE LOW...AS FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS/EC...MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA. NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS YET AS THE 12Z AND LAST
NIGHTS 00Z GFS WERE MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW. THE
12Z ECMWF ADDED SOME SUPPORT/CONSISTENCY TO TONIGHTS MODELS WITH A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY WINDS FOR NOW AND KEPT TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL BE
ISSUE FOR TODAY. LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. LOW RH AND DRY FUELS WILL
ALSO EXIST.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS... KVGT... KDRA...
KBIH... KDAG...KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 102 TODAY NOON-7 PM MST.
.CA...NONE.

PIERCE/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS