Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS85 KVEF 260045
RFWVEF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
545 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

CAZ226-227-NVZ460-462-260145-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-061026T0100Z/
OWENS VALLEY/SOUTHERN INYO FOREST-DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTY DESERTS/CNC DISPATCH-
NYE COUNTY DESERTS/LAS VEGAS DISPATCH-
545 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER AS WELL.

$$

MORGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
415 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES DOWN THROUGH
UTAH AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DECREASING WINDS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
NORTH WINDS. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA IS WELL
INITIALIZED BY THE 06Z NAM AND GFS AND BOTH SOLUTIONS DIVE IT DOWN
THROUGH UTAH TODAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE
NAM INDICATES NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY. BASED ON THE 00Z/06Z NAM...DECIDED
TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR INYO/ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 45 MPH EXPECTED. THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS
BREEZY TO WINDY AND KEPT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS
INHERITED. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY DOWN
THROUGH LAKE HAVASU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING IT FOR BOTH
LAKE MEAD AND LAKE HAVASU OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NAM SURFACE WIND
FORECASTS LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE THAN THE STRONG 925-850 MB
FORECASTS FROM NEEDLES SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON BASED ON HOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
AND THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN 5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWERED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
REBOUND AS NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY ONWARD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY AN EQUALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TRANSITION BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT OPERATIONALLY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GRADIENT APPEARS
WEAK THEREFORE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS NOT ANTICIPATED. ONLY
INTERESTING ITEM OF NOTE IS GFS INDICATES MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. DID NOT INDICATE THIS ON THE
GRIDS DUE TO RECENT POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH VFR/P6SM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO
OVER 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE BEATTY...MORMON MESA...AND
DAGGETT CORRIDORS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS ALONG THE OWENS VALLEY
AND IN EASTERN INYO COUNTY ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATH VALLEY. THE HIGHER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z IN INYO COUNTY AND AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
MORMON MESA AND DAGGETT CORRIDORS. WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY
DROP BY 00Z THURSDAY IN CALIFORNIA AND 05Z IN NEVADA. TAFS AND TWEBS
ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS.
SEE TAFS FOR KLAS...KVGT...KDRA... KBIH...KDAG...KEED FOR DETAILS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM PDT TODAY ZONE 21. WIND
      ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM ZONE 14.
.AZ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST ZONE 36.
.CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM TODAY ZONES 520/522.

ADAIR/BELL

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS