Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS85 KVEF 171859
RFWVEF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1159 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006

AZZ101-CAZ229-NVZ466-172200-
/O.CON.KVEF.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-060917T2200Z/
LAKE MEAD NRA/COLORADO RIVER-AZ SIDE-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
LAKE MEAD NRA/COLORADO RIVER-NV SIDE-
1159 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 /1159 AM MST SUN SEP 17 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT /3 PM MST/
THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT /3 PM MST/
THIS AFTERNOON. 

NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 10 PERCENT AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS85 KVEF 172217
RFWVEF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
317 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006

.....FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NEVADA ZONES 460-462 FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

AZZ101-CAZ229-NVZ466-172330-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-060917T2200Z/
LAKE MEAD NRA/COLORADO RIVER-AZ SIDE-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
LAKE MEAD NRA/COLORADO RIVER-NV SIDE-
317 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 /317 PM MST SUN SEP 17 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HAVE DECREASED BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. 

$$

NVZ460>462-181400-
/O.NEW.KVEF.FW.A.0015.060919T1900Z-060920T0200Z/
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTY DESERTS/CNC DISPATCH-
LINCOLN COUNTY/ELY DISPATCH-NYE COUNTY DESERTS/LAS VEGAS DISPATCH-
317 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. 

ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SEPTEMBER WILL ENTER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. SUSTAINED SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 MPH ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE
VERY DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. DRY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
SPEEDS EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING TOMORROW. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BY TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE AND SHORT TERM
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM. PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WIND DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. JUDGING
FROM OBSERVED SPEEDS AT KEED YESTERDAY COMPARED TO THE MOS NUMBERS
YESTERDAY...THE TRUTH FELL BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV BUT CLOSER TO THE
MET. USING THE SAME RELATIONSHIP FOR TODAY AND A 1.4 MULTIPLIER FOR
GUST SPEEDS...SUSTAINED WINDS WOULD BE JUST UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA
AND GUSTS WOULD BE JUST ABOVE CRITERIA. CHOSE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH
TO A WARNING SINCE THE MARGINAL WINDS WILL BE OUTWEIGHED BY RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND FIRE DANGER WHICH WILL EASILY EXCEED CRITERIA. NEXT
CONCERN IS THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WHAT EFFECTS IF ANY IT WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER. MODELS HAVE HANDLED
THIS FEATURE INCONSISTENTLY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO
BE A COMPROMISE OF ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A VERY SMALL
CHANCE FOR RAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS BUT LEFT THE POPS OUT FOR NOW
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL WEATHER IN
STORE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MODELS
DEPICTING A DRY PATTERN OVER THE EXTENDED. A LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE WRN CONUS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE DEEPEST SOLUTION
REGARDING THE TROUGH WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF KEEPS THE 500MB LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA. WENT WITH A BLEND FAVORING THE GFS FOR CONTINUITY
TONIGHT...BUT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WINDS AND INCREASE TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS THE WEAKER
SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
BACK TO CLIMO NORMS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AND HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION..TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR
KLAS...KVGT...KDRA...KBIH...KDAG...KEED FOR DETAILS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...RED FLAG WARNING 9 AM TO 3 PM TODAY FIRE ZONE 466.
.AZ...RED FLAG WARNING 9 AM TO 3 PM TODAY FIRE ZONE 101.
.CA...RED FLAG WARNING 9 AM TO 3 PM TODAY FIRE ZONE 229.

MORGAN/KENNEDY

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS