Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1045 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRY TO SET UP OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE
IS THAT THE MAIN SMOKE PLUME FROM THE CALIFORNIA FIRES HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WHICH HAS IMPROVED VISIBILITY
CONSIDERABLY. THE SMOKE PLUME IS STILL VERY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WITH WINDS FORECASTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF IT IN ALL THE ZONES WHERE IT
IS CURRENTLY MENTIONED. ALSO AJUSTED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATION REPORTS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...330 AM PDT...SHORT TERM...FIRE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY PROVIDING SMOKE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. LARGE PLUME THAT
MADE IT INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY LAST EVENING HAS DIMINISHED...BUT
SMOKE IS STILL LINGERING. EXPECT SMOKY CONDITIONS TO VARYING DEGREES
DURING THE DAY TODAY...PARTICULARLY AT DAYBREAK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY.
OTHERWISE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...PROVIDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK IN ON FRIDAY FROM THE
EAST...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY. AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR A WEAK
GULF SURGE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BACKED OFF THE MOISTURE FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE MAIN TWO PLAYERS
FOR THE EXTENDED STILL REMAIN THE LOCATION OF THE LARGE EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE FORECASTED TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO.  CURRENTLY THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE AXIS OF THE
HIGH LOCATED CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO KEEP THE MAIN BULK OF
MOISTURE PULLED FROM T.S. CARLOTTA TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS ITS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS TO BE IN PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES
FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS... KVGT... KDRA...
KBIH... KDAG... KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

SALMEN/CZYZYK/MOSES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS