High Wind Watch 10, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
920 AM PST THU NOV 9 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
AND WILL ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS ARE STARTING TO SWITCH TO MORE NORTHERLY AROUND LAS
VEGAS VALLEY NOW WHICH SHOULD START TO HINDER MUCH MORE OF A WARM
UP. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE AN UPDATE LATER TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO TELL. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. TRAILING
EDGE OF CLOUDS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY DISSIPATING SO CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
BE THE RULE ACROSS THE CWA. NEW 12KM NAM SHOWS CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE
FOR SOUTHERN SIERRA DOWNSLOPE EVENT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST MOVING
INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AT 3 AM. WINDS HAVE RESPONDED AND CONTINUE TO
RESPOND IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...IN THE NEVADA TEST SITE AND IN THE CHINA
LAKE AREA. THE DAGGETT ASOS ALSO BEGAN TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO INCLUDE
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY UNTIL 6 AM. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
NOT MADE A LOT OF PROGRESS OVERNIGHT AFTER PASSING THROUGH TONOPAH
AND BISHOP AROUND 5 PM YESTERDAY AND WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN ALL THAT
STRONG BEHIND IT. NOT REAL SURE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE VALLEY TODAY AND IT MAY ACTUALLY TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. THE LATEST 06Z MAV MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. DUE TO THE
WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE TOO MUCH WARMING TODAY TO GET BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER AIR WORKING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND POSSIBLY THE OWENS VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THICKER
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN
REGIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...LARGE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE PAST
TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN POINT OF DIFFERENCE FOR OUR AREA BEING THE
PLACEMENT OF A LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS
FEW PACKAGES IN FORECASTING THE AREA TO STAY IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF THE PAC
NW. MAIN PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BUT WITH 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOWING A DEEPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
MON-WED HAVE EXPANDED 10 PERCENT POPS INTO NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
FOR TUES/WED. STRONG 500MB HEIGHT PACKING AND SFC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS STILL SUGGEST BREEZY TO WINDY SFC CONDITIONS BOTH AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM AREA WIDE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIND
DIRECTION STILL REMAINS A LESS FAVORABLE WNW FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES...THOUGH WITH RIDGETOP WINDS AROUND
40KTS AND 500MB WINDS GREATER THAN 50KTS MAY STILL SEE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAINING
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS.TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR
KLAS...KVGT...KDRA... KBIH...KDAG...KEED FOR DETAILS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

BELL/SALMEN/MOSES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS