Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000
WGUS75 KVEF 072239
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
336 PM PDT THU SEP 7 2006

AZC015-072246-
MOHAVE AZ-
336 PM MST THU SEP 7 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL MOHAVE
COUNTY...

AT 335 PM MST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT 
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT TRUMBLE HAVE DIMINISHED. 
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY SO TRAVELERS ON SECONDARY 
ROADS AND THOSE OUTDOORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER LATER TODAY.

LAT...LON 3650 11345 3613 11366 3605 11343 3643 11316

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1013 AM PDT THU SEP 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL AGAIN FUEL THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ALONG THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...24 HR CHANGE PRODUCT AS OF 16Z INDICATED TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AND DEWPOINTS ARE UP 5 TO 10 DEGREES
THIS MORNING. THIS MAKES SENSE DUE TO LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
RAPIDLY AND CATCH UP TO FORECASTED HIGHS FOR TODAY SO NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. UPDATE WILL DEAL MAINLY WITH SKY COVER TRENDS AND
REMOVAL OF MORNING WORDING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...350 AM PDT...
SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
NEAR SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING AND BOTH THE 06Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK CIRCULATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER TODAY. A 70 KNOT JET
WAS ALSO ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS TOWARD WESTERN
COLORADO. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW AND MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY
LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY...BUT MAY ALSO BRUSH CLARK AS
WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAN WEDNESDAY SINCE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
DECREASING OVERALL MOISTURE WITH LOWERING 850-500MB THETA-E VALUES.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE JET THIS
EVENING COULD HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AT DRYING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS DRIER MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 06Z
GFS IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AS THE 00Z RUN...BUT SHOULD STILL
ACT TO DRY AND STABILIZE THE AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DRIER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT HOLDS ON TO SOME POPS OVER LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES A LITTLE LONGER THAN IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS. ALSO
KEPT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY
AND THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SUPPORT THAT IDEA.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
IN FORECAST IS GOOD. SUNDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH PASSAGE THAT SHOULD
FINALLY SWEEP THE PESKY MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS STILL
DIFFER IN DEPTH OF THROUGH WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AFTER THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN APPEAR IN ALL CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN THE
MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND KLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS...KVGT...KDRA...
KBIH...KDAG...KEED...FOR DETAILS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

ADAIR/JACQUES/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1039 AM PDT THU SEP 7 2006

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519-521>527-NVZ014>022-080845-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-
CADIZ BASIN-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
1039 AM PDT THU SEP 7 2006 /1039 AM MST THU SEP 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A LESS FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...HOWEVER STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY
WHERE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.