Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000
WGUS75 KVEF 230314
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
814 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

CAC071-230445-
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
814 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM PDT FOR 
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MORONGO VALLEY AND YUCCA VALLEY.

AT 810 PM...RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING AWAY FROM 
THE BURN AREAS. HOWEVER...AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAIN HAD FALLEN 
OVER THE BURN AREAS THIS EVENING...AND MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS MAY 
ALREADY BE OCCURRING AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PREVIOUS FLOWS HAVE 
TAKEN AS LONG AS THREE HOURS TO MOVE DOWNHILL INTO POPULATED AREAS. 
PEOPLE IN AND NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND READY TO MOVE 
TO HIGHER GROUND AT THE FIRST SIGN OF MUD OR DEBRIS FLOWS.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LAS
VEGAS.

LAT...LON 3404 11654 3409 11642 3416 11643 3410 11660
      3404 11660

$$

MORGAN

000
WGUS75 KVEF 230437
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
935 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

CAC071-230445-
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
935 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM PDT FOR SOUTH 
CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 935 PM...RADAR INDICATED THAT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS 
CONTINUED NEAR THE BURN AREAS. NO REPORTS OF MUD OR DEBRIS FLOWS 
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE 
ENDED. THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 945 PM.

LAT...LON 3404 11654 3409 11642 3416 11643 3410 11660
      3404 11660

$$

MORGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
210 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER
THE REGION WILL PROVIDE HOT CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY ON THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE SMALL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEXT WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MEAD. MODELS SHOW THIS MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH CENTER
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA.
FURTHER TO THE EAST IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF CONVECTION CAN REALLY
GET GOING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. DOUBT MUCH WILL GET GOING
THERE...BUT THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE CONVECTION OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM WHICH COULD GENERATE AT LEAST A BIT OF A COLD POOL AND
PROGRESS WESTWARD IN THE GENERAL FLOW. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN AREA OF FORCING
FROM THE MCV. REALLY DONT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. WITH AMPLY MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING RECYCLED...FEEL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO SOLAR
HEATING ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY. FOR TEMPS
GENERALLY WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MET...CLOSER TO THE MAV
AS DIRTY HIGH CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS FROM FULL POTENTIAL MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON TRACK AND
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO FORECAST. UPPER LVL HIGH IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A TROF
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND WEAKENING THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS EXPECT
LINGERING MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER WEDNESDAY AS DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN. THE WILD CARD FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL
BE THE EXACT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA. NHC TRACK HAS THE STORM
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST JUST OFFSHORE OF BAJA THROUGH DAY FIVE.
MODELS SEEM TO BE BRINGING MOISTURE FROM EMILIA UP INTO OUR AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...WDLY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS OF STORMS ACROSS THE
BEATTY AND DAGGETT CORRIDORS. TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS...
KVGT... KDRA... KBIH... KDAG... KEED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

BAILEY/MOSES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
816 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-230700-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
816 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 /816 AM MST SAT JUL 22 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MOJAVE
DESERT AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...THE STRONGEST OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
DOWN BURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH...CREATING A DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THAT DOES OCCUR.