Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 PM PDT THU JUL 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAR
WESTERN NEVADA AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE IN
DRIER AIR...AND WILL SEE ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON SO VIRTUALLY ALL
ATTENTION PLACED ON FIRST 24 HOURS OF FORECAST. ALL STORMS TODAY
FIRED UP FROM POINTS EAST OF THE WESTERN BORDER OF LINCOLN COUNTY.
STRONGEST CELLS INITIALLY WERE IN MOHAVE COUNTY BUT MOVED INTO CLARK
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSED. PW SENSOR STILL
SHOW OVER 1.3 INCHES IN LAS VEGAS WITH NEARLY THE SAME IN KINGMAN.
OUT TO THE WEST THE MORNING SOUNDING IN EDWARDS HAD PW VALUES OF
ONLY HALF AN INCH. WV SATELLITE LOOP CONCURS AND SHOWS THE VERY
SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE MOIST AND DRY AIR. LOOP ALSO SHOWS MORE
MOISTURE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH WERE MEXICAN PW VALUES HAD BEEN UP
TO 2 INCHES THE PAST DAY. MODELS AGAIN INDICATING MOISTURE TO BE
DIMINISHING ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER NEVADA AND ARIZONA BUT
BASED ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS THAT HAVE TRIED TO DRY US OUT TOO FAST
AM VERY HESITANT TO GO ALONG WITH THAT IDEA. BIG KICKER TODAY THAT
HELPED FIRE UP THE CONVECTION WAS A 50 TO 60 KT JET OVER ARIZONA
ALONG WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER ARIZONA. THE JET WILL STILL
BE OVER ARIZONA TOMORROW ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER. BOTTOM
LINE...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT BE LESS THAN TODAY DUE TO LESS SUPPORT ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINTAINING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT DRYING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE.
WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS...CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST IN THE DAY 5 TO 7
TIME PERIOD BUT MAINTAINED GHOST 10S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR
POSSIBLE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM ABOUT LAS
VEGAS AND EAST AND WILL AFFECT THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA
CORRIDORS THROUGH AROUND 04Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY
BUT STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDOWN IN THE DAGGETT CORRIDOR MAINLY
FROM LAS VEGAS TO THE NEVADA/CALIFORNIA STATELINE. TAFS AND TWEBS
ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS.
SEE TAFS FOR KLAS... KVGT... KDRA... KBIH... KDAG... KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

BELL/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
342 PM PDT THU JUL 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HIKO                    37.60N 115.22W
07/06/2006                   LINCOLN            NV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NV DOT CLEARING FLOOD DEBRIS FROM NV HWY 318 NEAR HIKO.

&&

JACQUES