Tornado Warning 4, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND
IS NOW EAST OF FORECAST AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH JET STREAK COUPLING. 12Z NAM/GFS AND 18Z RUC ALL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...SO
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AREA
WILL BE UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

EXTENDED...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST RUN OF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING.
&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-291300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
958 AM MDT (1058 AM CDT) SUN MAY 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PINE RIDGE TO
FAITH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
734 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E HERMOSA             43.84N 103.15W
05/28/2006  E60 MPH          CUSTER             SD   PUBLIC

&&

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
747 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N OELRICHS            43.21N 103.23W
05/28/2006  E70 MPH          FALL RIVER         SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
800 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             1 S OGLALA              43.17N 102.73W
05/28/2006  M1.75 INCH       SHANNON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S OGLALA              43.17N 102.73W
05/28/2006  E70.00 MPH       SHANNON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PORTION OF ROOF BLOWN OFF GREENHOUSE

&&

JJOHNSON

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