Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM ALBERTA THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTH WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING. THERE LOOKS
LIKE THERE IS A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH AND DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN FORECAST...CLOSER TO GUIDANCE VALUES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
SOUTHERLY WIND CONDITIONS AS TODAY. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

CONTINUED WITH THE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE HOT WEATHER
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 90S
TO AROUND 100.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES PUSHING +16C. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
100F. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AND CONFINE POPS TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINING SOME MVFR CEILINGS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AFTER SUNSET...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING. AS THE CEILINGS LOWER OVERNIGHT...LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE FOUND AROUND THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. WILL BE MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING WETTING RAINS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
     DAKOTA  UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
845 AM MDT MON AUG 7 2006

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-081300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
845 AM MDT (945 AM CDT) MON AUG 7 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FIRE ZONES 260...261...262...263...264...265...
AND 266 IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FIRE ZONES 259...297...
298...AND 299 IN NORTHEAST WYOMING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GIVE
PARTS OF THE AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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