Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 182117
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
214 PM MST TUE JUL 18 2006

AZC003-182124-
/O.CAN.KTWC.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-060718T2130Z/
COCHISE AZ-
214 PM MST TUE JUL 18 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 214 PM MST...THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY HAD DIMINISHED 
IN INTENSITY AND WAS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS. 
THUS...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 3213 11024 3227 11010 3244 11023 3244 11045
      3230 11045

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST TUE JUL 18 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL HIGH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO
KANSAS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN A TYPICAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
MAY BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES AND MAY PUSH AS FAR WEST AS THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO
BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE INVERTED TROUGH WHICH GAVE US FITS THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW OUT NEAR 30N/121W. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED
SOME 300-200MB SPEED DIVERGENCE/STRETCHING DEFORMATION TO OPEN UP
OVER SE AZ AND NE SONORA THIS MORNING WHICH COULD HELP TSTMS GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OR TWO NEARBY...IF NOT OVERHEAD. A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ WAS MOVING FROM SONORA TOWARD THE TOHONO
OODHAM NATION THIS MORNING. THE E FLANK OF A SIMILAR SYSTEM
YESTERDAY HELPED TO ENHANCE TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRES.
THE E FLANK TODAY WILL EXTEND FROM SE PINAL...THROUGH KTUS...INTO E
SANTA CRUZ/W COCHISE. WE ALSO CONVENIENTLY HAVE A SUBTLE MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY ALONG THE SAME GENERAL AXIS...WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS WEST
AND 50S EAST. IF TUCSONS DEWPOINT DOESN/T CRATER LIKE WE SAW OVER
THE WEEKEND...MODIFYING THE 12Z SOUNDING FOR 103/56 WOULD GIVE A
MEAN LAYER CAPE /MLCAPE/ NEAR 2000 J/KG. THATS CERTAINLY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A BIG DAY. BUT THERE ARE TWO MINUSES WHICH ARE STOPPING
ME FROM RAMPING THINGS UP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AT LAST FOR NOW.
ONE IS THAT THE CONTINUED ESE FLOW COULD FOR THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW
ADVECT WARM 550-400MB AIR AND MUCH DRIER 850-650MB AIR INTO OUR CWA
DURING PEAK HEATING PER KEPZ AND MMCU SOUNDINGS. IF BOTH WERE TO
OVERSPREAD US YET AGAIN...OUR CAPE WILL END UP MORE LIKE 500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER MINUS IS THAT OUR 0-6KM SHEAR HAS FALLEN
FROM 30-35KTS DOWN TO 15-20KTS. THAT MAY BE TOO WEAK TO ALLOW MUCH
ORGANIZATION. IF WE DO GET SOMETHING GOING...THOUGH...WE MAY HAVE A
GREATER HEAVY RAIN THREAT TODAY DUE TO THE SLOWER CELL MOTIONS...AND
THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER FLOW SHOULD REDUCE THE HOSTILE MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION. IN SUMMARY WE ARE THINKING A
SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND PROBABLY THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY SINCE FRI OVER THE E CWA WHICH HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN
CAPPED SINCE THEN. GOING POPS REFLECT ALL OF THIS WELL...WITH AN
UPTICK SHOWN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...5-10PCT ABOVE CLIMO W...AND
10-20PCT BELOW CLIMO EAST. IF WE SEE SOMEWHAT SLOWER STORM MOTIONS
MATERIALIZE...WE MAY UPDATE THE HWO TO INCLUDE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
TO THE MIX.

INCOMING 12Z MODELS SHOW NO REAL SURPRISES...WITH A DECENT /SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO/ DAY POSSIBLE WED...FOLLOWED BY A DOWNTURN THU/FRI...
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPTURN THIS WEEKEND. MORE ON THAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PYTLAK

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1212 PM MST TUE JUL 18 2006

AZZ019-029>035-190700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1212 PM MST TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT OVER EASTERN
SONORA AND WILL TEND TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE VALLEYS AND MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO
ONE OR TWO FAIRLY LARGE CLUSTERS BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
TOHONO OODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AFTER SUNSET. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND A
LITTLE MORE MOIST. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO WEAKER WHICH MEANS THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS GREATER THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...MAINLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM WINKLEMAN TO BISBEE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD ALSO BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES
TO THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS SHIFT BEGINS...WINDS
ALOFT WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND MAY CAUSE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY
MAY BE MORE SUPPRESSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK