Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 170222
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
721 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2006

AZC019-170245-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-060717T0245Z/
PIMA AZ-
721 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MST
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 715 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MARANA...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PICTURE ROCKS BY 740 PM MST

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST FOLLOWED BY 
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN 
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.

LAT...LON 3229 11087 3251 11096 3250 11150 3218 11143

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE THIS WEEK WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE ADVERTISEMENT OF A BIG UPSWING IN ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED
TROF...HAS YET TO OCCUR. AS OF THIS WRITING...WE ARE STILL IN THE
WAITING GAME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED STORMS IN NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TOHONO OODHAM NATION AND IN
SANTA CRUZ. THE REST OF THE AREA...AS OF 2 PM...WAS QUIET WITH FLAT
CUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY IN THE SUBSIDENT AREA AS THE
UPPER INVERTED TROF OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST. ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IN
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS VALUES HAVE CRATERED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OF
THIS MORNING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WHICH HAS NEGATED MORE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 12Z
TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND INVERTED V SHAPE
WILL RESULT IN MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. FAST MOVEMENT OF
STORMS WILL LESSEN FLASH FLOOD THREAT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
WEST...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER. WITH
INVERTED TROF LIFTING WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS/BOOMERS.

THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH DAY-TO-DAY
VARIABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
631 AM MST SUN JUL 16 2006

AZZ019-029>035-171445-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
631 AM MST SUN JUL 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH WHICH IS A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO PULL MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO TRIGGER STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING IS AT ITS BEST. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INITIALLY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE EASTERN ZONES OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES AND WILL PUSH WEST. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWN-BURSTS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A THREAT AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
MONDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ANY
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON MONDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW PUSHES WEST LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED WEST AS WELL. THEREFORE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.