Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 160120
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
620 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

AZC023-160130-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-060716T0130Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
620 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST
FOR WEST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 612 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TUMACACORI...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF NOGALES...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES EAST OF RUBY BY 630 PM MST


A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

LAT...LON 3146 11098 3162 11100 3166 11115 3154 11115
      3153 11115 3152 11126 3141 11128

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 160132
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
631 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

AZC023-160141-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-060716T0130Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
631 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 630 PM MST...

AT 630 PM MST STORMS HAD DIMINISHED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND 
MOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST...SO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 630 PM MST. A STRONG STORM CONTINUED JUST NEAR 
RUBY...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM COULD STILL GENERATE GUSTY 
WINDS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

LAT...LON 3146 11098 3162 11100 3166 11115 3154 11115
      3153 11115 3152 11126 3141 11128

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWEST TODAY...MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
RATHER ACTIVE THIS WEEK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE HESITANT TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ALL OF THE RIGHT
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALL RELATED TO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. THE MODELS STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE ON HOW IT
INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT ARCHIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA
BACK IN 2000 AND 2001...FEATURES LIKE THIS USUALLY HAVE THE BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER...APPROX 200
TO 300 MILES ON EACH SIDE...AS WELL AS CLOSE TO THE CORE ITSELF.
THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY SETUP ACROSS SW NM.

AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT BATCH OF DRY AIR TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST MOISTENING UP AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OF 25-30 KT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
UP THE ERN CWA. THIS STEERING FLOW WILL HELP STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
DYNAMICS...DECENT SHEAR AROUND THIS EVENING WILL HELP THUNDERSTORMS
ORGANIZE TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SPC AND PSR...WE DECIDED THAT ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE AROUND TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 900 PM MST.

THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES UP AGAINST THE UPPER
RIDGE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA
AND NORTHERN SONORA...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...I WOULD ALSO EXPECT TO SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT.

IN ANY EVENT...AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES OVER UT/CO/KS...RESULTING IN A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE HIGH CENTERED THE CONSOLIDATES OVER NRN AZ OPENING OUR CWA
UP FOR A RIM SHOT NEXT WEEKEND. SINCE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DIFFICULTY
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH THE EXTENDED FCST WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST FOR ALL ZONES IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1230 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

AZZ019-029>035-161930-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1230 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS IS A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO PULL MOISTURE TOWARD SOUTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW
LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL MOVE
TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN ARIZONA...THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE EASTERN ZONES OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES AND WILL PUSH WEST. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWN-BURSTS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A THREAT AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXISTS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP TO ORGANIZE THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
AND DAMAGING DOWN-BURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW PUSHES WEST LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED WEST AS WELL. THEREFORE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.