Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1225 PM MST FRI JUL 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SHOULD
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST ARIZONA. A REPOSITIONING OF THE
HIGH SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING RELATIVELY DRIER FLOW SHOULD SLOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING ZONES/GRIDS TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...RAISE POPS AND INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN WORDING. 18Z SOUNDING
PRETTY MUCH TELLS US WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE DRY SLOT. WE HAVE NOT WARMED ENOUGH ALOFT TO PROHIBIT FAIRLY
STRONG DEVELOPMENT. THE 1.46 IN PRECIP WATER AND VERY LIGHT SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER
PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS A FAIRLY LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SE
FROM THE YAVAPAI COUNTY STORMS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY ABOUT TO ENTER
OUR CWA AND INTERSECT OUR DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. THE ONLY NEGATIVE WE
SEE IS THE ANVILS ARE PEELING AWAY FROM THE STORMS WELL AHEAD OF
THEIR MOTIONS AND CLOUDING OVER THE VALLEYS. THAT MAY ARREST THE
DESTABILIZATION THAT IS OCCURRING...BUT NOW THAT THE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL
THE TRIGGER IN CONCERT WITH KPSR. WILL RUN THE WATCH UNTIL
9PM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND IT LATER TONIGHT OVER ZONES
19/30 WHERE WARM TOP REDEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WITH THE UPPER LOW DEFINITELY LIFTING NNE AND
EVENTUALLY SHEARING IN THE FACE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW...THE
DOWNTURN WE WERE EXPECTING ON WED FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STARTING TO DECENT AGAIN. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THE RIDGING WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND 06Z GFS
NEVER LOWERS OUR 700MB DEWPOINTS BELOW +5C OR OUR PRECIP WATER BELOW
ABOUT 1.1. THUS WE MAY BE DOWN...BUT CERTAINLY NOT OUT. AND AFTER
THE PAST 2 DAYS...OUR MODEL CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES
19/30/32/33/34/35 UNTIL 9PM.

&&

PYTLAK

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
110 PM MST FRI JUL 7 2006

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-082015-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
110 PM MST FRI JUL 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BECAUSE THE STORMS ARE MOVING SO SLOWLY...1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS LIKELY IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A RISK OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
UPSWING ON SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DOWNTURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-082015-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
110 PM MST FRI JUL 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE THE AREA
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER TODAY...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT FOR WATER AND MUD
STILL ON ROADWAYS FROM THIS MORNING/S HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK