Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 050245
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
738 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

AZC003-050315-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-060705T0315Z/
COCHISE AZ-
745 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 745 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. MOVEMENT WAS 
WEST AT 20 MPH. STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF 
WILCOX SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND TEXAS CANYON AREA 
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SUNIZONA. 

AT 740 PM MST...A WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS ON STATE 
HIGHWAY 191 SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF COCHISE. EARLIER...ANOTHER SPOTTER 
REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 70 MPH AT SUNSITES. 

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALSO PRODUCING VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA 
UNTIL 9 PM MST. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MST FOR THE REMAINDER OF COCHISE COUNTY. 
 
LAT...LON 3174 10968 3242 10973 3240 11015 3174 11016

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 050259
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
758 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

AZC003-050315-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-060705T0315Z/
COCHISE AZ-
758 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MST
FOR WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 755 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. STRONG AND 
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS EXTENDED SOUTH 
FROM EAST OF CASCABEL TO EAST OF BENSON AND NORTHEAST OF TOMBSTONE. 
HIGH WINDS WILL MOVE INTO BENSON AND SAINT DAVID WITHIN THE NEXT 15 
MINUTES. 

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA UNTIL 9 PM 
MST. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 915 PM MST FOR THE REMAINDER OF COCHISE COUNTY.  

LAT...LON 3172 10976 3244 10977 3243 11033 3180 11034

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 050321
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
815 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

AZC003-050325-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-060705T0315Z/
COCHISE AZ-
815 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY EXPIRED
AT 815 PM MST...

AT 815 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING WEST AT 20 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN 
COCHISE COUNTY. HIGH WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS HAD 
DIMINISHED IN SPEED AND WERE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BEING REACHING 60 
MPH. HOWEVER...PERSONS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF BENSON AND SAINT DAVID 
CAN EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 THROUGH 
840 PM MST.

EVENTUALLY...THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND WILL SPREAD FARTHER WEST 
INTO NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND APPROACH THE VAIL AROUND BY 845 PM 
MST AND CENTRAL TUCSON AT 9 PM MST. 

REMEMBER...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO PRODUCING VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA 
UNTIL 9 PM MST. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MST FOR THE REMAINDER OF COCHISE COUNTY.   

LAT...LON 3172 10976 3244 10977 3243 11033 3180 11034

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE AZ THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WHERE THIS AREA
WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER AND/OR NEAR
MOUNTAINS...WITH CELL MOVEMENT GENERALLY NWWD ONLY AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS. PIMA COUNTY ALERT GAUGE VALID 2110Z INDICATED 1.46 INCHES OF
RAIN AT MT. LEMMON...WITH OTHER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.39-0.47 INCH
NEARBY.

SEVERAL SCENARIOS ABOUND FOR TONIGHT-WED. WITHOUT GOING THROUGH EACH
POTENTIAL SCENARIO...WILL SUMMARIZE WITH BELIEF THAT ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN SONORA TONIGHT ALONG
MOISTURE AXIS DEPICTED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER COMPLEX OVER
FAR SRN SONORA LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WELL...GIVEN NWWD PROGRESSION OF
UPPER LOW. 04/12Z NAM DEPICTED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS EVENING OVER SWRN NM/FAR SE AZ AND BELIEVE THIS AREA TO
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS
EVENING APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT
STEERING FLOW AND INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.

DIFFERENCES IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS START AS EARLY AS WED. NAM MORE
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE/PRECIP FIELDS VERSUS GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM
SOLUTION WHICH IS INLINE WITH INHERITED FORECASTS IN DEPICTING SOME
UPSWING IN ACTIVITY MAINLY DURING THE THUR-FRI PERIOD. PER COORD
WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ OPTED TO REFLECT SOME INCREASE IN INHERITED POPS
WED-THUR...AND WILL DEPICT SOME LINGERING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS DURING THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS. ALSO PER COORD WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ
AM STILL NOT YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING
LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK VIA GFS. THUS LOW-GRADE POPS AT
LEAST STILL WARRANTED DURING THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS AND ONLY
VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA FIELDS.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER EXPECT
ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON