Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE SEP 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWERS. CLEARING TO THE
WEST ALLOWED NICE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PLUME ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA FROM THE REMAINS OF JOHN. PRECIPITABLE WATER CAME IN AT 1.42
INCHES ON THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING BUT HIGHER VALUES SOUTH AND EAST ON
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATES.

WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
WITH WEST COAST RIDGE BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A LITTLE DRYING BUT THAT IS RELATIVE...SHOULD STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A PATCH OF DRIER AIR THAT COULD WRAP IN
FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
IMPULSE COULD HELP FOCUS REMNANT AND LINGERING MOISTURE FRIDAY FOR
AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON