Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST MON AUG 21 2006

.SYNOPSIS...WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...A
MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS DEVELOPING FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER EAST
TEXAS AND AN INVERTED TROF OVER BAJA/GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE IS
ALSO A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROF BETWEEN TUCSON AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO...LOOKING AT THE MORNING UPPER AIR PLOTS. 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING
A BIT MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ALONG WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 20K
FEET. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOUNTAIN STORMS TO GET OUT INTO THE VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST LIKELY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TONIGHT. MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY HAS BEEN HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS RATHER COMPLEX WITH
POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD
CUT DOWN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND THEN POSSIBLE RETURN TO DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OF BAJA. WITH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...I WILL KEEP STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST
GOING FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1019 AM MST MON AUG 21 2006

AZZ019-029>035-221730-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1019 AM MST MON AUG 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SONORA MEXICO THIS
MORNING WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH DURING THE DAY AND INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FEATURE...A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SLOW MOTION OF THE STORMS WILL ELEVATE THE RISK THAT THEY
WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH DAY-TO-
DAY VARIABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
148 PM MST MON AUG 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HAIL             2 SE SIERRA VISTA       31.55N 110.29W
08/21/2006  M0.75 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACORONA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
249 PM MST MON AUG 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUCSON                  32.20N 110.89W
08/21/2006                   PIMA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BILLBOARD DOWN AT 22ND STREET AND KLOB ROAD. TELEPHONE
            LINES DOWN ON CARS.

&&

SCHAFFNER