Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 302333
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
431 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

AZC023-302345-
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
431 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 424 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. ALSO...THE NOGALES AIRPORT HAD REPORTED OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN 
IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES. THIS THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL 
REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS...STREAMS AND COUNTRY ROADS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3150 11082 3138 11090 3133 11081 3133 11057
      3146 11068

$$
EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 302341
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
440 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

AZC023-302347-
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
440 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 440 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE THUNDERSTORM WHICH 
PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NOGALES AIRPORT HAS WEAKENED. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 445 
PM MST. HOWEVER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SO STAY 
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION 
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR UPDATES ON THIS 
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

LAT...LON 3150 11082 3138 11090 3133 11081 3133 11057
      3146 11068

$$
EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
A CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS STORMS TRACK SOUTH FROM
THE RIM COUNTRY THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TO MORE
SEASONABLE READINGS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK CIRCULATION ALOFT WAS SHOWING UP NICELY IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
HELP FOCUS SOME OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
TRACK SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE THE PAST FOUR DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT SOUNDS LIKE OVER
KILL...BUT THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SOIL CONDITIONS
REMAIN SATURATED SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MORE FLASH
FLOODING. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THE WATCH
SINCE ALL THE MODELS INDICATED A DRYING TREND LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS DRYING TREND CAN BE CONSIDERED A RELATIVE PHRASE AS
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS TO SCOUR OUT.
THUS...A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
CAN BE EXPECT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WITH THE END OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH PUBLIC ZONES
 AZZ019-029-030-031-033-035 UNTIL 900 AM MST MONDAY MORNING.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
153 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-311600-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
153 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 900 AM MST MONDAY MORNING...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAD RESULTED IN
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS AND RUNNING WATER IN NORMALLY DRY
WASHES AND RIVERS. THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA REMAINED
VERY MOIST. ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-311600-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
153 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE NOT MANAGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA TONIGHT...THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MINIMAL. THUS...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.