Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 020034
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
528 PM MST SAT JUL 1 2006

AZC019-020130-
PIMA AZ-
528 PM MST SAT JUL 1 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST FOR 
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY. THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACED THE 
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS 
AFTERNOON. 

AT 520 PM MST...NUMEROUS REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE PUBLIC AS WELL 
AS FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS THAT VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL FROM A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORO VALLEY 
...DOVE MOUNTAIN...MARANA...CATALINA FOOTHILLS...SABINO CANYON AND 
THE TUCSON METRO AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS WERE 
INDICATING THAT A HALF TO NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 
30 MINUTES OR LESS HAD FALLEN. AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY BE AFFECT THE 
MOST WILL BE CATALINA FOOTHILLS...ORO VALLEY AND MARANA.   

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3218 11124 3218 11063 3252 11078 3251 11133

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST SAT JUL 1 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES MOVING WNWWD AROUND 10 KTS OVER FAR SRN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ/
COCHISE COUNTIES AT 2105Z. OTHER SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN 40 DBZ
ECHOES WERE MOVING SWWD AROUND 5-10 KTS VICINITY WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. 01/18Z NAM DEPICTED
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/ERN PIMA/SE PINAL AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WILL OPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SIMILAR TO NAM DEPICTION THIS EVENING. WILL DEPICT LOWER POPS ACROSS
FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY AND ACROSS FAR ERN COCHISE COUNTY NEAR THE NM
BORDER. BELIEVE THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF SIGNIFICANCE
WILL END AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO THE 01/18Z NAM
SOLUTION.

UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH OF THIS FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. RESULTANT EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

01/12Z NAM DEPICTED POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SUN NIGHT
WHILE THE 01/12Z GFS WAS NOT QUITE SO ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER 01/12Z GFSX MOS POP FOR KTUS WAS 53 PERCENT FOR TUE. PER
COORD WITH WFO PSR WILL OPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPECTATION THAT MONDAY WILL
BE THE PROVERBIAL UP-DAY FOR PRECIP. OF COURSE...THIS SCENARIO IS
STILL SUBJECT TO REVISION...TUE COULD EASILY BE THE UP-DAY...AND MON
CLOUD DEBRIS/GUNK COULD PREVAIL INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

AT ANY RATE...GFS SHIFTS UPPER HIGH EWD BY THUR IN RESPONSE TO ERN
PACIFIC TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SWLY...OR AT
LEAST FROM A MODEL-PERSPECTIVE...BY FRI. FAIRLY MOIST 700-300 MB
LAYER STILL PROGGED VIA GFS DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIOD SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW-GRADE POPS.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE 2006 MONSOON START DATE WAS JUNE 28. THE AVERAGE
DEWPOINT AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FINALLY BROKE THROUGH THE
54 DEGREE BARRIER WITH A VALUE OF 56 DEGREES ON JUNE 28. THE AVERAGE
DEWPOINT FOR JUNE 29 CONTINUED THIS UPWARD TREND...ENDING THE DAY AT
58 DEGREES. AND THE DAILY AVERAGE DEWPOINT FOR JUNE 30 WAS 57
DEGREES. THUS...THE OFFICIAL START FOR THE 2006 MONSOON SEASON HAS
BEEN DESIGNATED AS JUNE 28...THE FIRST OF THE THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH AN AVERAGE DAILY DEWPOINT OF 54 DEGREES OR HIGHER. WHILE THIS
FALLS BEFORE THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE START DATE OF JULY 3...THIS
WILL BE THE 5TH TIME THE MONSOON SEASON HAS STARTED ON JUNE 28...
ALONG WITH 1956...1959...1966 AND 1976...MAKING JUNE 28 THE SECOND
DATE FAVORED BY CLIMATOLOGY. THE FIRST...OF COURSE...BEING THE
STATISTICAL AVERAGE OF JULY 3RD...WHICH CLAIMS 6 MONSOON START DATES
(2001/1998/1971/1968/1963/AND 1960).

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
438 PM MST SAT JUL 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW CATALINA          32.44N 110.97W
07/01/2006                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 FOOT DIAMETER AND 40 FEET TALL TREE SNAPPED IN HALF

&&

GMOLLERE