Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 150114
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
608 PM MST FRI JUL 14 2006

AZC003-150200-
COCHISE AZ-
608 PM MST FRI JUL 14 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 603 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN SIERRA VISTA AND HEREFORD...AMOUNTS UP 
TO 1.25 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THIS AREA.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR AREAS ALONG MONTEZUMA CANYON 
ROAD BETWEEN CORONADO NATIONAL MEMORIAL AND SUTHERLAND PEAK IN FAR 
SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.25 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ON THE RECENT FIRE 
BURN AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS...RUNOFF WILL CAUSE 
A RAPID RISE IN STREAMS AND WASHES ALONG THE MONTEZUMA CANYON ROAD.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RAMSEY CANYON
PRESERVE...NICKSVILLE 

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3134 11021 3153 11013 3149 11026 3144 11033
      3134 11034

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 150154
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
652 PM MST FRI JUL 14 2006

AZC003-150202-
COCHISE AZ-
652 PM MST FRI JUL 14 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM MST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
COCHISE COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED...HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY 
RAINS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF PONDED WATER AND FLOW IN WASHES BETWEEN 
SIERRA VISTA AND HEREFORD AND ALONG MONTEZUMA CANYON ROAD.

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

LAT...LON 3134 11021 3153 11013 3149 11026 3144 11033
      3134 11034

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
233 PM MST FRI JUL 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER BECOMES POSITIONED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
MEXICO WILL PUSH WEST TONIGHT MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE KEMX RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING THAT STORMS A LITTLE
SLOW TO GET STARTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS
LIKELY DUE TO SOME NEGATIVE VORTICITY ROTATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z KTUS
SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
TO GET STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS. I STILL BELIEVE
THAT STORMS WILL GET GOING TODAY WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON BECOMING SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE WEST AT 15 MPH.

THINGS APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE
DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
NICE DYNAMICS AND DECENT SHEAR FOR GOOD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO
OCCUR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
MORE EXCITED ABOUT SUNDAY...ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE PRESENT
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON