Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 042251
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
344 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

AZC019-050015-
PIMA AZ-
344 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 340 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN 
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CATALINAS AS WELL AS NEAR THE RINCONS. 
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS NOTED GENERALLY EAST OF CATALINA HIGHWAY 
AROUND THE ALDER CANYON AREA. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES EXCEEDED 2 
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH GAGES MEASURING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 
INCHES IN OTHERS. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT 
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN...REDINGTON PASS AND RINCON CREEK.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF 
WASHES...SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS SOME ROADS. DO NOT 
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. 
CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID WASHES OR STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3203 11045 3251 11047 3251 11077 3231 11083
      3209 11067

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE AZ THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WHERE THIS AREA
WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER AND/OR NEAR
MOUNTAINS...WITH CELL MOVEMENT GENERALLY NWWD ONLY AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS. PIMA COUNTY ALERT GAUGE VALID 2110Z INDICATED 1.46 INCHES OF
RAIN AT MT. LEMMON...WITH OTHER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.39-0.47 INCH
NEARBY.

SEVERAL SCENARIOS ABOUND FOR TONIGHT-WED. WITHOUT GOING THROUGH EACH
POTENTIAL SCENARIO...WILL SUMMARIZE WITH BELIEF THAT ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN SONORA TONIGHT ALONG
MOISTURE AXIS DEPICTED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER COMPLEX OVER
FAR SRN SONORA LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WELL...GIVEN NWWD PROGRESSION OF
UPPER LOW. 04/12Z NAM DEPICTED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS EVENING OVER SWRN NM/FAR SE AZ AND BELIEVE THIS AREA TO
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS
EVENING APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT
STEERING FLOW AND INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.

DIFFERENCES IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS START AS EARLY AS WED. NAM MORE
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE/PRECIP FIELDS VERSUS GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM
SOLUTION WHICH IS INLINE WITH INHERITED FORECASTS IN DEPICTING SOME
UPSWING IN ACTIVITY MAINLY DURING THE THUR-FRI PERIOD. PER COORD
WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ OPTED TO REFLECT SOME INCREASE IN INHERITED POPS
WED-THUR...AND WILL DEPICT SOME LINGERING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS DURING THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS. ALSO PER COORD WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ
AM STILL NOT YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING
LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK VIA GFS. THUS LOW-GRADE POPS AT
LEAST STILL WARRANTED DURING THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS AND ONLY
VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA FIELDS.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER EXPECT
ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1247 PM MST TUE JUL 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             13 W NOGALES            31.36N 111.15W
07/03/2006  M1.00 INCH       SANTA CRUZ         AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BF