Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 302353
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
452 PM MST WED AUG 30 2006

AZC019-021-310130-
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
452 PM MST WED AUG 30 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PINAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. OVER AN AREA FROM SANTA ROSA SOUTHWEST TO 
SAN SIMON. RADAR ESTIMATES 1.00 TO 3.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS 
OCCURED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS. SEVERAL LARGE WASHES 
SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA...GU VO...ANEGAM AND GU ACHI WILL HAVE 
SIGNIFICANT FLOWS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VENTANA...
  NORTH KOMELIK...KOHATK...JACKRABBIT AND ANEGAM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3212 11248 3205 11219 3251 11181 3267 11190
      3252 11226 3234 11242

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
148 PM MST WED AUG 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEFINITELY MORE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING SHOWS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
1.31 INCHES WHICH IS UP ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...GOES PW IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH LESSER VALUES TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL AROUND THE 1 INCH MARK. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME COOLING
FROM AROUND 850-650MB AND ALSO FROM 600-525MB WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON.

RADAR CURRENTLY DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SOUTH OF TUCSON AND WESTWARD TO NEAR AJO.
ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST REGIME AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MODELS DIFFER TO SOME DEGREE WITH REGARD TO THE
PATH OF HURRICANE JOHN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES THE STORM JUST SOUTH OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER HURRICANE JOHN
SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK INTO THE PACIFIC. OBVIOUSLY THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE PATH
THAT JOHN TAKES. THE FARTHER NORTH THE PATH THE BETTER CHANCE THAT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MY FORECAST JUST KEEPS SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS GOING EACH DAY. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED EACH SHIFT FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST
BASED ON LATER FORECAST TRACKS FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST
AND EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON