Wind Advisory 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
AREA/DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO FULL SUN.  COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOP IN THE THICKER AC DECK...BUT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR TODAY AS WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WINDS...TEMPS...KBDI WILL BE MET FOR WARNING CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH
RH VALUES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 PERCENT.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR VICINITY
OF BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LIMITED CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARMING WELL INTO 80S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...850 MB
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT IN VERY WARM TEMPS AND WITH LIMITED
CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
PAWNEE...OSAGE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. UNSEASONABLY WARM/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES. GFS KEEPS MAIN DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTH OF AREA ACROSS KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. STILL COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG DRY
LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  58  85  61 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   78  58  85  60 /  10  10  20   0
MLC   78  60  86  62 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   78  56  83  56 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   73  57  81  56 /  10  10  20   0
BYV   75  57  81  57 /  10  10  20   0
MKO   77  57  84  61 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   77  54  83  57 /  10  10  10   0
F10   77  58  85  61 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   78  61  86  61 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 21
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
442 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING NOON TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE AREA IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS (NON THUNDERSTORM).
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...SPREAD INDEX=44.
        AREA...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
        ONSET...NOON.

DISCUSSION...
THREE OF FOUR PARAMETERS WILL BE MET TODAY TO REQUIRE A RED FLAG
WARNING IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE ELEMENTS MEETING CRITERIA
ARE...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MILES AN HOUR WITH GUST TO 35...TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 75 DEGREES...AND KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX GREATER THAN 250.
THE FOURTH PARAMETER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE 30 TO 40 PERCENT...
SHORT OF THE 25 PERCENT RED FLAG THRESHOLD. VEGETATION IS NOW IN TRANSITION
FROM DORMANT TO GREEN...WHICH FIRE WEATHER MODELS DO NOT HANDLE WELL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTION SATURDAY WILL BE WELL NORTH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST CONCERNING
SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.