Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 478, NWS Tulsa, OK

September 22, 2006Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 22, 2006, 6:32 PM CDT for Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 14 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 22, 2006, 6:32 PM CDT (23:32 UTC)
Expired: Sep 22, 2006, 6:46 PM CDT
In force: 14 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Madison County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 22, 6:37 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	3 E Pettigrew, AR

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 22, 12:06 PM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 409 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 642 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 311 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 363 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 8.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 222332
SVRTSA
ARC087-230030-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0478.060922T2332Z-060923T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS 
  TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PETTIGREW...MOVING EAST AT  
  45 MPH. 

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RED STAR.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3585 9366 3575 9368 3578 9351 3590 9350

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 222346
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARC087-222357-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0478.000000T0000Z-060923T0030Z/
MADISON AR-
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MADISON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3585 9366 3575 9368 3578 9351 3590 9350

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 22, 6:30 PM CDT, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 22, 6:30 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

AT 6 PM...SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH THE DEVIANT RIGHT MOTION ENHANCING TORNADIC POTENTIAL
AS SEEN IN THE RECENT NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY STORM.  LATEST
PROFILER DATA SHOW THE BEGINNING OF THE BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WITH THE RECENT VICI PROFILER DATA SUGGESTING WHAT IS TO COME
FOR THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ALSO...LATEST RADAR DATA
SHOW ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DRYLINE NEAR DURANT OKLAHOMA.  SURFACED BASED INHIBITION WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SHOULD STORMS STRENGTHEN ALONG THE DRYLINE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR SURFACE BASED AND ENCOUNTER IMPROVING WIND
FIELDS AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD.  THE RISK FOR SIGNFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL AREAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 22, 12:54 PM CDT, 5 hours 38 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=51.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM NOWATA TO OKEMAH
TO ARDMORE. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR A
MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE BEFORE STALLING AND THEN RETREATING BACK
TO THE WEST THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO THE EAST OF
THE DRY LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONG LIVED TORNADOES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST THIS EVENING AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORM RISK...FIRE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY VEGETATION WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
AREAS WHERE RAINFALL REMAINS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BRINGING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 22, 5:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             STILWELL                35.81N 94.63W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       ADAIR              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NMK

Local storm report, Sep 22, 5:35 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 35.95N 94.42W
09/22/2006  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NMK

Local storm report, Sep 22, 6:01 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             8 N MOUNTAINBURG        35.75N 94.17W
09/22/2006  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   PUBLIC

&&

NMK

Local storm report, Sep 22, 6:13 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOWELL                  36.26N 94.13W
09/22/2006                   BENTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BLOWN...POSSIBLY BLOCKING A ROAD.

&&

NMK

Special weather statement, Sep 22, 6:19 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ002-222345-
CARROLL AR-
619 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL

AT 619 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BUSCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK HILL...PLEASANT RIDGE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...GRANDVIEW...BUSCH AND BEAVER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Local storm report, Sep 22, 6:21 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             ST PAUL                 35.82N 93.77W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

NMK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 22, 2:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford	43 min
Sep 22, 3:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	38 min
Sep 22, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison	55 min
Sep 22, 3:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	48 min
Sep 22, 3:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Madison	38 min
Sep 22, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford	62 min
Sep 22, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	55 min
Sep 22, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison	63 min
Sep 22, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	62 min
Sep 22, 5:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	45 min
Sep 22, 5:53 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Madison	37 min
Sep 22, 6:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Franklin	50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.