Severe Thunderstorm Warning 444, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AID OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LI VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE AROUND -5 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH CAPE VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINES
FORCES WITH SOME WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT.

WENT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER WRF AND UKMET.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE RED RIVER
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE SAT THROUGH TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  98  77  99 /  20  10  10  20
FSM   68  98  73  98 /  20  10  10  20
MLC   72  97  75 100 /  20  20  20  20
BVO   68  98  73  99 /  20  10  10  20
FYV   65  93  68  93 /  20  10  10  20
BYV   63  93  68  94 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   69  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  20
MIO   67  98  74  96 /  20  10  10  20
F10   70  97  75  99 /  20  20  10  20
HHW   74  94  75  99 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 2
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREAD INDEX=46.
	AREA...NORTHWEST PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEXES TO AROUND 105 IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS SOME AREAS THAT STILL
HAVE NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FINE FUELS ARE DORMANT
AND DRIED OUT. THESE AREAS HAVE CONDITIONS WHERE FIRES COULD
EASILY IGNITE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTHWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
ENSURE THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

OKZ062-232100-
MAYES OK-
333 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES

AT 333 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ADAIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PRYOR...SALINA...STRANG AND ADAIR.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING OUTFLOW WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST...TOWARD
CENTRAL MAYES COUNTY.  WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

OKZ073-075-232130-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
358 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PITTSBURG AND LATIMER

AT 358 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF KREBS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HIGGINS...DAMON...GOWEN...
MCALESTER...HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...DOW...BACHE...ALDERSON...KREBS
AND BLOCKER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

OKZ062-067-068-232130-
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-WAGONER OK-
406 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES AND WAGONER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

AT 404 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF MURPHY...NEAR THE MAYES AND WAGONER COUNTY LINE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS PRODUCING OUTFLOW WINDS TO THE
SOUTH TOWARD FORT GIBSON LAKE. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULBERT...LOST CITY...PEGGS...WAGONER AND
MURPHY AND LAKE FORT GIBSON.

WIND GUSTS AROUND...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS STORM COULD REACH 40
MPH. BOATERS ON LAKE FORT GIBSON SHOULD MOVE TO SHELTERED AREAS.