Severe Thunderstorm Warning 422, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF COLD FRONT IS A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO
SALLISAW TO MCALESTER.  LOCATIONS SOUTH WILL SEE ONLY MINOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT...WHILE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
PREVAILS.  UPDATE WILL TAKE A SHOT AT REFINING TEMPS WITH MOST SITES
RAISED A FEW DEGREES...WITH THE LARGEST UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON BENEATH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY.  CAP
STRENGTH IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER TODAY THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THOUGH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT.  WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS AREAWIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ALONG EXPECTED
FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 07
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 5

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.  INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.  THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  THESE CONDITIONS RAISE BOTH EXCESSIVE HEAT AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD ANY ORGANIZED AREA
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE MID TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.  THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ANY GUSTY
WINDS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

ARZ020-202015-
FRANKLIN AR-
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
    NORTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 238 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER TURNERS BEND. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...PARADISE...TAFT...LONELM...CRAVENS...WATALULA...JETHRO...MO
UNTAIN TOP...BARNES...TURNERS BEND...CASS AND REDDING.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

OKZ075-202015-
LATIMER OK-
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LATIMER

AT 240 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF PANOLA. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENGAL...DAMON...PANOLA...RED OAK
AND VETERANS COLONY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

OKZ076-202015-
LE FLORE OK-
247 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
    SOUTHERN LE FLORE

AT 247 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF HEAVENER. ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...POTEAU...OCTAVIA...BIG
CEDAR...MUSE...WHITESBORO...HODGEN...SUMMERFIELD...HEAVENER...FANSHAW
E...HOWE...WISTER AND HONOBIA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

OKZ073-202015-
PITTSBURG OK-
251 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN PITTSBURG

AT 251 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF HARTSHORNE. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...BLANCO...HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...DOW AND BACHE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

OKZ076-202045-
LE FLORE OK-
316 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
    CENTRAL LE FLORE

AT 316 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HOWE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...POTEAU...HODGEN...
SUMMERFIELD...HEAVENER...FANSHAWE...HOWE...WISTER...SHADY POINT AND
CAMERON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

ARZ020-202045-
FRANKLIN AR-
318 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN

AT 318 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CRAVENS...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...PARADISE...TONEY...LONELM...CRAVENS...WATALULA...
JETHRO...FERN AND BARNES.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.