Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 389, NWS Tulsa, OK

August 13, 2006Franklin County, Sebastian County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 13, 2006, 4:14 PM CDT for Franklin County, Sebastian County, Arkansas. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 13, 2006, 4:14 PM CDT (21:14 UTC)
Expired
Aug 13, 2006, 5:15 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Franklin County, AR, Sebastian County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 13, 2:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 13, 2:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 100 TO 104
RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LIS IN THE -5 DEG C RANGE. WILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

DIFFICULT FORECAST NEXT 72 HOURS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN
FRONTAL FEATURES/PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT CONVECTION
NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON MONDAY. OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY 18Z WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE NAM/WRF
CONCERNING BOUNDARY EVOLUTION/PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATED FROM MAV GUIDANCE IN MANY
PERIODS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST HOWEVER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNTIL OVERALL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

HAVE DISCOUNTED GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OVER DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION/CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS THAT OCCURS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UPPER DISTURBANCE/MCV
FEATURE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MODEL FROM MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY OVERDONE...AND THEREFORE THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE.
BELIEVE NAM/WRF IS MORE REALISTIC...WASHING BOUNDARY OUT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPING. WARM 850MB TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING DECENT WARM UP. IF
LIMITED PRECIPITATION OCCURS MON/TUE...HIGHS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO REGION WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 25 DEG C. STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 7 GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  97  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
FSM   75 101  74  96 /  20  50  30  20
MLC   76 101  74  99 /  10  50  30  20
BVO   71  96  69  94 /  40  30  30  20
FYV   71  93  68  92 /  20  50  30  20
BYV   71  91  68  91 /  20  50  30  20
MKO   76  99  72  95 /  20  50  30  20
MIO   74  94  69  92 /  40  30  30  20
F10   76  99  72  97 /  20  50  30  20
HHW   76 100  76  98 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 10
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 12
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 13, 12:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 13, 2:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Aug 13, 2:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

ARZ020-029-132030-
FRANKLIN AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
259 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN FRANKLIN AND EASTERN SEBASTIAN

AT 259 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
URSULA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...URSULA...VESTA AND BLOOMER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
Special weather statement, Aug 13, 3:21 PM CDT, 53 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

ARZ019-132045-
CRAWFORD AR-
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

AT 321 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF VAN BUREN...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CONCORD...VAN BUREN...ALMA...
SHIBLEY AND FURRY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
Special weather statement, Aug 13, 3:30 PM CDT, 44 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

ARZ029-132115-
SEBASTIAN AR-
330 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

AT 330 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JENNY LIND...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GREENWOOD...BARLING...EXCELSIOR...
JENNY LIND...RYE HILL AND CENTRAL CITY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
Special weather statement, Aug 13, 4:03 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Aug 13, 4:06 PM CDT, 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

ARZ020-132145-
FRANKLIN AR-
406 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 406 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF BRANCH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHARLESTON AND BRANCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2006Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.