Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 231911
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
211 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

OKC023-231921-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0345.000000T0000Z-060623T1930Z/
CHOCTAW OK-
211 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3401 9575 3385 9564 3399 9526 3420 9541

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
946 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST OK THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND ALSO SOME REDEVELOPMENT UP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OK THAT MAY GRADUALLY CREEP INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006)

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS MAKING THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS GOING IN THAT
AREA TODAY. COMPLEX OUT WEST IS FADING FAST AND WILL LIKELY NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA AND EVEN IF IT DOES MAKE IT...IT WILL ONLY AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE POPS ARE ALREADY MENTIONED.

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE WESTERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST WITH
MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE THIS FAR EAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED HOWEVER AS STRANGE THINGS TEND TO HAPPEN IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MAY FALL BELOW 50 IN SOME PLACES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FOR LATE JUNE BUT A QUICK GLANCE SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
LIKELY NOT QUITE REACH RECORD VALUES. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NEVER MAKES IT BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 4

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM EXTENDING
FROM BARTLESVILLE TO FORT SMITH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING OR MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.  WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD RESULT IN SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MINIMAL DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY REINFORCING THE DRY AIR. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS COULD MAKE A RUN AND THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
121 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

OKZ053-231900-
CHOCTAW OK-
121 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CHOCTAW

AT 121 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
EAST OF SOPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUGO...GAY...GOODLAND...SAWYER...
SOPER...MESSER...KENT...FALLON...SPEER AND APPLE.

A LARGE PORTION OF CHOCTAW COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
THROUGH 200 PM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.