Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL IS NOW MOVING INTO FORT SMITH.  QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND A WALL CLOUD HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE CELL IN THE LAST
HOUR.  SO FAR NO TORNADOES REPORTED.  THE STORM IS IN THE MAX
SR-HELICITY ENVIRONMENT OF 275 M2/S2 TO 3KM.  STORM-RELATIVE FLOW
IS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT NEAR 850 MB...
THIS OWNING TO THE 10 KNOT 850 FLOW SEEN IN THE KSRX VAD WIND.
UNTIL THIS CELL LOSES ITS ORGANIZATION THE TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT
BE ZERO...BUT WITH EVENING COOLING AND THE ATTENDANT LOSS OF
INSTABILITY THE CELLS ENVIRONMEMT IS PAST ITS PEAK. NONE-THE-LESS
THE INTERESTS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN AT A HIGH STATE
OF READINESS.

A LARGE COLD POOL IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE STORMS IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A FORWARD PROPOGATING
MCS WITH TIME...LEAVING THE TAIL-END CELL WITH THE BEST CHANCE
TO HOLD SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.  THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASING
WIND AND CONTINUED HAIL THREAT AS THE NOW EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS
ACCLERATES SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
622 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND NEAR A FORT SMITH...
        MCALESTER LINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
        WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING AND HAVE
QUICKLY STRENGTHENED. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
EARLY THIS EVENING THE REMNANTS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH WERE
PROVIDING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
SUPERCELLS RESIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES FOR ANY EXTENDED AMOUNT OF
TIME.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY IN
THE STRONGER STORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             4 N MULDROW             35.46N 94.60W
05/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
841 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
05/09/2006  E0.88 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

OKZ072-074-100245-
HASKELL OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
844 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL

AT 844 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GORE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TAMAHA...SALLISAW...MC
KEY...VIAN AND GORE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
848 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE POCOLA             35.26N 94.44W
05/09/2006  E60 MPH          LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
859 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             1 S FORT SMITH          35.37N 94.40W
05/09/2006  E0.88 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     HAIL             FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
05/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            JUST EAST AND NORTH OF THE AIRPORT

&&

SFP