Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 040541
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

OKC097-040600-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-060504T0600Z/
MAYES OK-
1241 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR MAYES COUNTY...

AT 1237 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOCUST GROVE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SALINA AND ROSE.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3637 9501 3617 9502 3617 9511 3617 9511
      3609 9511 3609 9513 3609 9522 3626 9528
      3638 9502

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
751 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE UNDER WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THAT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. STILL EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
BACK BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THAT IS MOVING EAST INTO
WESTERN TEXAS. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND QPF FIELDS IN UPDATE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION WITH DECENT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS JUST
WAITING FOR A TRIGGER OF SOME SORT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 14
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
956 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
956 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE THE STORM COMPLEX TO EXPAND AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...AND REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON
WHERE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW SETS UP.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH...AND MAY ALSO OCCUR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
AN END TO THIS EPISODE SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW STARTS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN ENTER THE FORECAST.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

OKZ062-068-040530-
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-
1157 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

AT 1157 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES EAST OF MURPHY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PEGGS...MURPHY...LOCUST
GROVE...ROSE...SALINA AND SPAVINAW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

OKZ064-040545-
CREEK OK-
1208 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

AT 1208 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF BRISTOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRISTOW...
SLICK AND KELLYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.