Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 090505
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1104 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

OKC079-090545-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-060309T0545Z/
LE FLORE OK-
1104 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1145 PM CST FOR 
   SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY...

AT 1102 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF BIG CEDAR TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF BIG
CEDAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY 
RURAL AREAS OF FAR SOUTHEAST LE FLORE COUNTY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3474 9480 3449 9468 3452 9404 3477 9435

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
948 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR THE STORM TRACKING ACROSS CHOCTAW
COUNTY.  THE CELL HAS SHOWN SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.  EVEN THOUGH
THE SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT...STORM-RELATIVE SURFACE WINDS
ARE STRONG GIVEN THE CELL MOTION.  STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
AHEAD OF THE CELL INTO PUSHMATAHA COUNTY IS NEAR 400 M2/S2.
THE CELL APPEARS TO HAVE MOMENTARILY CYCLED DOWN BUT WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY.  SO FAR
THE DEVELOPMENT IN KANSAS HAS BEEN POST-FRONTAL.  HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH HAS
LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -3 TO -5.  NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS IN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES.
CELLS DEVELOPING THERE WOULD HAVE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
655 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 AM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 9 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT THE CAP HAS HELD CONVECTION IN CHECK OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO FAR.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS. A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT THE WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF A SURFACE BASED STORM CAN
BE REALIZED.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WHILE A STRONG BAND OF 80 TO 90 KNOT MID-LEVEL WINDS SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THE IMPROVED UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 2 TO 3 AM. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LINEARLY ORIENTATED AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG...AND THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY BOWING STORM SEGMENTS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED. CONTINUALLY MONITOR LATER
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BOTH WITH
ONGOING MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY
BE A HAIL THREAT.

THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
TYPICAL OF SPRINGTIME FUEL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...AND LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
903 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
03/08/2006  M60 MPH          SEBASTIAN          AR   ASOS

            FORT SMITH REGIONAL AIRPORT ASOS

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
954 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

ARZ029-OKZ049-076-090430-
LE FLORE OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
954 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE AND PUSHMATAHA

AT 954 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM HARTFORD TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF KOSOMA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

OKZ049-090445-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
1028 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 1028 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF ALBION TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SOBOL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SOBOL AND ALBION.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.