Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
924 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SUPERCELLS MOVING THROUGH THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY HAVE CONTINUED
TO CYCLE UP AND DOWN RAPIDLY AS THEY MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORT SMITH AREA.  HAVE NOTED RELATIVELY TIGHT ROTATION AS LOW AS
600 FEET AGL JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORT SMITH WITH FIRST CELL...THAT
THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATED.

SECOND CELL APPROACHING FORT SMITH IS EXHIBITING A STRONG CYCLONIC
INFLOW BAND...RESULTING IN AN IMPRESSIVE RADAR SIGNATURE...WHICH IS
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPDRAFT.  THE TRUE MESOCYCLONE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REFLECTIVITY HOOK.  AS WITH THE PREVIOUS CELL...
IF THE RFD PUNCHES OUT TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH-VELOCITY INFLOW THEN
RAPID TORNADOGENESIS CAN OCCUR.

SUPERCELLS TRACKING DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE SET TO TRACK JUST
SOUTH OF CHOCTAW COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL BE CLOSE AND MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT WITH A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS (NON THUNDERSTORM).
        RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
        RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=56.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ALONG AN EASTWARD MOVING DRY LINE. THE DRY
LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN
100 AND 200 PM WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASING.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LINEAR AND
WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...WITH A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LINE OF STORMS
SHIFTING EAST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MILES AN HOUR...AND NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MILES AN HOUR OR
GREATER. PLEASE REFER TO THE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE REGION TODAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND AGAIN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...UNLESS SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
LATER FORECAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN BY SUNDAY...AND ALSO FOR THE CONTINUED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
936 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
03/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   PUBLIC

&&

RBD