Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1242 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1242 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING SPREADS INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IF THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD INCREASE...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
MAIN THUNDERSTORM LINE PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...
PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM LINE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
716 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-300145-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
716 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

AT 716 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
WEST OF RYE HILL...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...COTTONWOOD...ROLAND...SHORT...
MOFFETT...MILL CREEK...UNIONTOWN...FORT SMITH...JENNY LIND...RYE
HILL...VAN BUREN...CEDARVILLE...NATURAL DAM...FURRY...FIGURE FIVE...
DORA AND LEE CREEK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
927 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

OKZ049-300400-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
927 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PUSHMATAHA

AT 927 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
EAST OF SOBOL...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SOBOL...CLAYTON...CLOUDY...
NASHOBA...TUSKAHOMA...KIAMICHI...ALBION AND SARDIS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.