Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
736 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST REMOVING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THIS
MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LAID DOWN A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STRONG CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN EXTREME INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 15
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
451 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
451 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 1PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS COMPLEX WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING COMPLEX AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE INTO
THE REGION TODAY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND DEW POINTS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS AIRMASS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
SHEER...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS
OUT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PUSHES TO THE EAST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
757 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WELCH                   36.87N 95.10W
05/09/2006                   CRAIG              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BLOWN OVER ONTO CAR

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
759 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BUSCH                   36.46N 93.83W
05/09/2006                   CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE IN BUSCH

&&

MAT

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