Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SFC BNDRY OVER CNTRL KS EXPECTED TO STAY QSTNRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. THE BNDRY WILL BE AIDED
OVERNIGHT BY APPCHG WAVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. DEW POINTS SLOW TO COME UP BUT THE
PARALLEL NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL RISE IN SAME AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS NOTED IN NRN OK SHOW THIS FCST TREND SEEMS REASONABLE. AS
UPPER LVL DYNAMICS MOVE EAST OF AREA LATE TNGT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK OR DMSHG OF ACTIVITY BEFORE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FIRES
TMRW AFTN. WHERE THIS REFIRING OCCURS WILL BE PREDICATED ON AREAL
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE CONTD RATHER
HIGH POPS OVRNIGHT WITH SOME RISK OF SVR WITH HAIL ESP TIL MIDNIGHT.
AGAIN MENTIONED SEVERE WITH BEST HEATING...CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER
DYNAMICS FROM THE NAM SOUTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. STG COLD
FRONT PER P-NAM AND GFS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING INTO NWRN CWA BY MID
TO LATE AFTN MONDAY. NOT QUITE SOON ENOUGH FOR NONDIURNAL TEMPS BUT
WILL BE CLOSE. GENERALLY PAINTED HIGH CHC POPS ON MONDAY BUT THIS
MAY BE GREATLY INFLUENCED...AGAIN...BY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. APPEARS
EXCESSIVE RAINS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 250 PERCENT...A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING CELLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN DVLPG. AMT OF CLOUDS TMRW WILL
DICTATE JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE. ADDED SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE TMRW AFTN AS COLD SURGE ENTERS AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING MONDAY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT PASSING BY
REMAINDER OF COUNTIES AND UPPER TROF CLOSING IN. ANY SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVERHEAD...MAY
SEE ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT SHOULD BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS SLOWLY DIE OFF TUESDAY BUT COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. WITH THE AID OF SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THIS AIRMASS IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER
MUCH OF MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER HIGH
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER ENERGY STILL MOVING IN
AND WILL ADD SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. HAVE ABOUT AN 8-15F RISE IN TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE
LONGER LIVED THAN EXPECTED. CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS WILL BE KEY TO
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z NAM KEEPS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE EVENING...WHILE 12Z GFS KEEPS 850MB WINDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY SPRING THAN
EARLY SUMMER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN THE LATE
WEEK PERIODS...WITH DIFFERENCES AMPLIFYING EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
PATTERN NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT THE NEXT FEW PERIODS WITH UPPER LOW
IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CUTOFF FROM NORTHERN BRANCH THAT BRINGS A
SYSTEMS SOUTHWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. APPEARS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. APPEARS ONLY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME CONVECTION. GFS TRIES TO BRING THE SOUTHWEST LOW
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GOING...BUT NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT IN THIS SO KEPT REMAINING PERIODS
DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-242100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
357 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
754 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             2 W MINNEAPOLIS         39.12N 97.74W
04/23/2006  E0.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
756 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             4 SW DWIGHT             38.80N 96.65W
04/23/2006  E0.88 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             MINNEAPOLIS             39.12N 97.71W
04/23/2006  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
816 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             TESCOTT                 39.01N 97.88W
04/23/2006  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
823 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             7 ENE MINNEAPOLIS       39.16N 97.59W
04/23/2006  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STRASSBERG

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
832 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

KSZ021-240215-
CLAY-
832 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

THROUGH 915 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE IDANA...CLAY CENTER...MILFORD LAKE...WAKEFIELD AND
GREEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.