Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DRYLINE SEEN WELL IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE JUST NOW MOVING
THROUGH SLN AND CNK. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM MHK TO EMP.  STRONG CAP ON 18Z TOP SOUNDING WILL
WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT MOISTURE NOT EXTREMELY DEEP AND MIXED LAYER
CAPE GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS AT THIS TIME.  BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG/AHEAD
OF DRYLINE FROM 21 THROUGH 02Z AS STRONGER FORCING AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT ACROSS NEBRASKA COULD WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM.  RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS SOMETHING OF A NEGATIVE
FOR TORS...BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS CONCERNING.  REFERENCE TOR
WATCH 190 FOR MORE INFO.

GFS/ETA MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING CONVECTION
ONLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH BEST CHANCE FAR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.  RUC AND PARALLEL NAM WOULD GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...THUS HIGHEST POPS FAR NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS SHOULD AFFECT NORTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE.  THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER
AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FROM NGM/NAM/GFS AGREE QUITE WELL WITH EACH
OTHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND HAVE DIFFERED LITTLE FROM THEM.
THIS RESULTED IN RAISING LOWS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES FROM ONGOING
FORECAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST AS NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES MONDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.

NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND SURFACE FRONT/DRYLINE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS FOR
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE UPPER
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH THE PLAINS UPPER LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
321 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND NEAR A WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA
BORDER. THERE IS AN ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY
ALSO SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TORNADO          EVEREST                 39.68N 95.42W
04/15/2006                   BROWN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTED THAT EVEREST FIRE DEPARTMENT WAS
            REPORTING A TORNADO OFF TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR WILLIS.

&&

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             ROBINSON                39.82N 95.41W
04/15/2006  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             6 SW TOPEKA             38.99N 95.76W
04/15/2006  E1.50 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

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