Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE WINDS AND THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VERY ACTIVE DAY ON TAP AS SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS
EASTERN KANSAS IN MODERATE RISK AREA.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT...STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE DISCREET SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL
GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  EVENT SHOULD TRANSITION TO
A LINE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/ WESTERN MISSOURI LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.  MUCH CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY.  EVEN THOUGH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS HINGE ON SOME
CLEARING...BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS OF 40KTS AND 850 MB WINDS OF
50-60KTS WARRANT ISSUANCE.  COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART.

FRIDAY...SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE FAR NORTHEAST CWA
EARLY FRIDAY BUT GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...LOOKS LIKE ONLY WEAK CAA ALONG WITH A
WESTERLY WIND.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.  MOISTURE
RETURN LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SO HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.  STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES THOUGH WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES ACROSS KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATTER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW PROGGED TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY MONDAY...PROVIDING FOR
A BRIEF TRANQUIL SPELL MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.  SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT H5 SHORTWAVE THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.  THE EC AND GFS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE EC BEING A LITTLE SLOWER.  THOUGHT THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED BUT THE GFS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO PUSH ENERGY INTO H5 RIDGING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FOR
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND FROM NOON TO 6PM FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1205 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311815-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1205 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA...AND SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY LARGE AND
DEVASTATING...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
138 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             MINNEAPOLIS             39.12N 97.71W
03/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
145 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     HAIL             SILVER LAKE             39.10N 95.86W
03/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
146 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     HAIL             12 SSW HADDAM           39.70N 97.39W
03/30/2006  E0.88 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
154 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HAIL             8 N MORROWVILLE         39.96N 97.17W
03/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

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