Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST ADVANCING EASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO WITH MUCH STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH BACK INTO THE ID
AREA. AT THE SFC...FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR
HIAWATHA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS. MOISTURE HAS POOLED TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS AND WITH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITIONS DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION
THIS AREA IS INCREASING. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...
MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON A SCATTERED BASIS
WITHIN AREA OF HIGHER INHIBITIONS. WILL GO WITH WITH SCT TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS MCS TRIES
TO DEVELOP WEST AND SPREAD EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA...AS
850 WINDS BACK AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. APPEARS AT THIS POINT
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TONIGHT IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WILL BE
SOUTH OF I-70...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTH. THE SOUTH IS THE DRIEST
PART OF THE CWA WITH 3-6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD INDICES GENERALLY IN THE
2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...NO PLANS AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVENING TRENDS FOR
ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE FFG INDICES ARE LOWER.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO TOMORROW FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER POPS WITHIN REGION OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES....THEN GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MCS/REMNANTS SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH CLOUDS...WILL
KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ACTIVE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED IS THROUGH MONDAY. TROF MOVING EAST
FROM THE PAC NW KEEPS FLOW OVER THE STATE SOUTHWESTERLY...EJECTING
SHORTWAVES INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BIG IMPACT WILL BE
POSITION OF THE FRONT...AND FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS AS FINER DETAILS RESOLVE. CONVECTION ON SATURDAY MAY
SEND BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN OK SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS TAKES THIS
SOLUTION AND KEEPS MOST PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER BRINGS 850MB
FLOW AROUND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
OVERRUNNING OVER THE FRONT. NAM IS SIMILAR BUT SHIFTS CONVERGENCE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH INTO NE KS. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED POPS INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WHERE
BOUNDARY IS MORE LIKELY TO SET UP AND AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE OVERRUNNING. ENTIRE STATE ALSO COMES UNDER BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROF OVER CO/WY/NE AT THAT TIME. MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM SATURDAY CONVECTION WHICH COULD
IMPACT PRECIP ON SUNDAY. TIME WILL TELL.

TRICK FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY WILL BE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF INTO NE KS. HAVE KEPT SCT POPS ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS COOLER DRIER AIR GETS A REINFORCING PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12-18Z WHICH SHOULD GENERATE PRECIP AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. UPPER TROF THEN SLOWS PROGRESS ACROSS
NEBRASKA...AND WITH SLOW EXIT WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLD POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

QUIETER PERIOD TUES-FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
KEEPS 850 TEMPS IN THE 14-18C RANGE WITH A VERY SLOW WARMUP
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
450 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
450 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF A
HIAWATHA...MANHATTAN TO MINNEAPOLIS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER ALL THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35 BY TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             HIAWATHA                39.85N 95.54W
08/25/2006  E0.88 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW ROBINSON           39.78N 95.46W
08/25/2006                   BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO TO THREE INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
730 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
08/25/2006  E65 MPH          OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

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