Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS
LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KS. SFC
ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST KS WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS REPUBLIC INTO MARSHALL COUNTIES WITH
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE HEAT AREAS AT
OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL KS.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KS WHERE THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WITHIN BETTER
INSTABILITY EXISTS. SHORTWAVE ADVANCING TOWARDS THIS AREA IS
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA. THE
SOUTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
CWA THIS EVENING WHILE CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH PERSISTS...DEVELOPING
AND MCS AND ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW WHICH MAY DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHWARD FROM THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA INTO
NEBRASKA. WILL TAPER POPS FROM LIKELY NORTHWEST CWA TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION IN OTTAWA COUNTY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING THERE AND
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND ALL OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 7 PM.

MONDAY...OUTFLOW FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINATION WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA AND SLOW.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND COOLER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE WAY
FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE UPPER
90S FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE A LITTLE MORE SUN AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
850 THERMAL AXIS JUST TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LEFTOVER
MORNING CONVECTION MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA EARLY WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MOST AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

TUESDAY...GFS PUSHES BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE THE NAM HOLDS
IT UP ACROSS THE AREA. AS UPPER FLOW GOES WESTERLY...THINK THE NAM MAY
BE MORE ON TRACK HERE. THIS WOULD PUT BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE TOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LLJ
15-35 KTS AND PW POOLING TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...THIS COULD BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED POPS 6-12Z AS A
RESULT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST AS MUCH RIDES ON FINAL
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AND SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES AND OUTFLOWS. IN EITHER
CASE IT APPEARS SOME COOLER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FOR
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPS TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

WED/THURS BRINGS A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE AXIS
MOVING OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY THEN A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON 850MB THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA AND WOULD BRING ANOTHER STRONG WARMUP. HAVE
LEFT TEMPS NEAR 100 ON THURS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...ANOTHER SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASSES INTO THE STATE. EC IS A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGE AND MAY CARRY A
WARMER SOLUTION IN LATTER PERIODS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS AND EASTERLY WINDS. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR
 KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
426 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
426 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AND ALL OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO HOLTON LINE. HEAT INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
213 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

KSZ010-062000-
MARSHALL-
213 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THROUGH 300 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS NEAR 50 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE OKETO...MARIETTA...BREMEN...HERKIMER AND MARYSVILLE.

THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO
TAKE SHELTER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

KSZ010-062045-
MARSHALL-
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THROUGH 345 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 15
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY NEAR 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
OKETO...BEATTIE...SUMMERFIELD AND AXTELL.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
255 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

KSZ008-009-062100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-
255 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THROUGH 400 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NARKA...MAHASKA AND
HOLLENBERG.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     NARKA                   39.96N 97.43W
08/06/2006  E80 MPH          REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

            AT LEAST ONE TREE DOWN.

&&

EK

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

KSZ021-022-062245-
CLAY-RILEY-
502 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THROUGH 545 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH AT 15 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CLAY AND RILEY COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF RILEY AND CLAY COUNTIES.

THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO
TAKE SHELTER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

WOLTERS