Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...

20Z OBS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATED AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG A
WEAK FRONT OR TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ALONG THE KS/NEB STATE LINE. A
CU FIELD HAS FORMED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE
REACHED THE MID 90S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MEANDERING NEAR THE KS/NEB STATE LINE THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS AT 20Z...TO FALL APART
THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. THERE IS NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS ONCE THE SUN SETS. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW THE
BETTER WAA AND LIFT SHIFTED EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO FOR TONIGHT AS
DRYER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UNTIL 03Z...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE IS ALONG THAT TROUGH AXIS. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE
SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THAT THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AREA. WITH MODELS INDICATING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH NO CAP...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAINTAINING A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL END UP...BUT THE TREND THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
BEEN MORE OF A NORTHEAST PUSH TO THE FRONT...SO FEEL PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS FURTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING AND COMPLETELY DIE OUT
AROUND SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAD SETTLED ON A SOLUTION FOR A MORE
ZONAL H500 FLOW BUT KEEPING A GENERAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  DURING THIS PERIOD THE
FASTER WESTERLIES SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SO A LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE DEEPEST
SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  MODELS HAVE MCS ACTIVITY RIDING
ALONG THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO THE
LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  OTHERWISE
LEFT THE WEEKEND DRY AND HOT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND 30 KT MEAN H850 FLOW WILL PROMOTE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO THE SURFACE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH A DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO H850...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...HPC MENTIONED MODELS HANDLING THE
GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WELL...BUT NOTED DIFFERENCES IN THE
SURFACE FEATURES.  AS THEY DISCUSSED THIS MORNING THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND FRONTAL POSITIONS WILL GREATLY DEPEND UPON MCS ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFTER.  FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THE GFS HAS BEEN BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA.  THE 12Z GFS AND THE 0Z EUROPEAN PAINT A SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT PICTURE BY STALLING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  BOTH MODELS BRING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME...WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY AS STRONG SHORTWAVES ARE COMMON THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER EASTERN KS...MOISTURE
AND THUS INSTABILITY WILL POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND SHORTWAVES
THAT MOVE OVER THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AN MCS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COMPLICATING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TO AVOID
THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLIP FLOPPING THE MENTIONING OF WEATHER DECIDED TO
GO WITH A SOLUTION OF SLOWING DOWN THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT INSTEAD OF
KEEPING IT STATIC FOR THREE DAYS.  IF MODELS DEVELOP RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADDED AND EXPANDED TO THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  AS
IT IS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND MOVE
THEM SLOWLY SOUTH FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
507 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
507 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY NORTH OF A LAWRENCE TO MARYSVILLE LINE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

KSZ034-282115-
OTTAWA-
328 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

THROUGH 415 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF OTTAWA COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE MINNEAPOLIS.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

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