Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE
NORTH INTO NE. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY FROM NW
MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM SIMILAR WITH PROGRESSION OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...AND FINALLY PUSHING EAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COME WITH THIS
FEATURE AS MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE TOP CWA.  THE POSSIBILITY
STILL EXISTS FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN TAKE
PLACE. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING IN CENTRAL KANSAS
WHILE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.  LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE CAP TAKING PLACE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER FEATURE ALONG WITH NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON
RECOVERY FROM EXPECTANT OVERNIGHT MCS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS EARLIER
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND 850 DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS CELL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES IN THE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEPART
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF LOW POPS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ANY DECAYING CONVECTION.

LOOKS DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN OVER THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS
AND A WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. COULD CATCH SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
REEVALUATE IF MODELS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE
CWA.

NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY SATURDAY
LOOKING DRY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN THE AFTERNOON ON BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS GIVING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKING DRY WITH WESTERLIES NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER WITH RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
411 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

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