Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
320 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH NAM A
LITTLE SLOWER/STRONGER THAN THE GFS.  I LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT.  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT IN WEST CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE WILL MARCH EAST THIS EVENING...AND INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.  WITH MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR
ADVANCING EAST WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS DECENT INSTABILITY...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN
SEVERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  FCST SOUNDINGS NEAR CNK AND SLN SHOW
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SOUTHERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FORCING THROUGH MOST
OF THE PROFILE WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE
WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER BOW ECHOS AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
KS.  WITH PWATS INCREASING AND DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. THE STORMS MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST HOW FAR EAST THEY GET IS THE QUESTION.  GFS
KEEPS THE LINE IN TACT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA WHILE THE WRF
INDICATES LINE MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
AS IT GETS EAST OF MANHATTAN.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.  IF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY ON...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA STARTING
OFF DRY.  NAM SHOWS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TRYING TO WORK IN DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT
OVERALL EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.  WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS MOVING OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM DURING
THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.  SPC
HAS OUR FAR SW CWA IN A SLGT RISK AND WHILE A FEW SEVERE STORMS SEEM
POSSIBLE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US.  IT SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S.  STRASSBERG

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...NAM AND GFS SEEM TO BE
AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST WHILE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING NEAR THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
KEPT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.

UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH GFS AGAIN A BIT FASTER MOVING THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH CWA UNDER THE POSITIVELY TILTED
RIDGE AXIS. GFS DOES SHOW SOME UPPER FEATURES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NEBRASKA/IOWA. RIDGE AXIS
GETS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVES. SURFACE FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY PERSISTS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EACH DAY. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS
TIME.  STARK

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-172100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
EVENING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TOPEKA.

STARK

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