Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS AND SEVERE
WEATHER.

STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER AREA WILL BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
REPEAT CELLS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA. TWO
DISCRETE EVENTS CONSIDERED. FIRST IS WITH SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING
OVER AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING AND WITH
HOT INFLOW TO FRONT...MID LVL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BNDRY LYR. STRONG WINDS MAY BE BIGGEST
THREAT BUT SOME HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WELL.
LATER TONIGHT SECOND OF THE TWO DISCRETE EVENTS IS FORECAST. GFS
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE WITH STG MCV/MCS INTO THE AREA. IF INFLOW CAN
BE MAINTAINED AT A GREAT ENOUGH MAGNITUDE...COULD BE A SECOND HEAVY
RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CWA. 850 THETA-E RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED NORMAL TO INFLOW. AS
MENTIONED, STRENGTH OF INFLOW WILL DICTATE HOW EFFECTIVE THIS
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE. IN ANY CASE, HAVE POSTED A FLOOD WATCH WITH
CONSIDERATION OF THESE TWO EVENTS...EVEN THOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS RATHER HIGH. REPEAT CELLS FROM ONE OR BOTH EVENTS COULD BRING
ENOUGH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS. AS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/THREAT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF AREA SUNDAY MORNING...LOW
CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE MOST OF THE CWA.
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TMRW LOOK REALLY GOOD AND WONT TOUCH
THEM. AMOUNT OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON CLEARING CRITICAL IN FORECASTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES. APPEARS BY GFS SOUNDINGS THAT WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE...AND THUS HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.

MAIN QUESTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS THE CHARACTER OF LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS. THE FUTURE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE /GFS AND
PARALLEL NAM A.K.A. WRF-NMM/ ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER WITH
THE LOW LEVELS. THE CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL NAM IS NOTICEABLY WETTER
AND WARMER. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE NAM/S
LOW LEVEL WET BIAS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND WRF-NMM ON THE
COOLER AND DRIER SIDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WARMING TREND AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING A MCV AND TRACKING THIS INTO
THE AREA MONDAY...AND THIS LEADS TO SOME UNEASINESS...BUT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND RISING HEIGHTS TO BOOT...HAVE
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID WEEK PERIODS WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM. PATTERN TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWESTERN
CONUS TROFFING COMES EAST TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS MAY ALLOW A
PACIFIC FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN WITH THIS OCCURING LOOK SLIM WITH VERY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING IN PLACE. GOING FORECAST WAS
PRIMARILY ONLY MASSAGED FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CONCORDIA THROUGH
JUNCTION CITY TO OTTAWA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-111100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
351 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY
RAINS POSSIBLY OCCURRING REPEATEDLY...AND FLOODING MAY RESULT. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CONCORDIA TO JUNCTION CITY TO
OTTAWA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE
STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TOPEKA.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
814 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

KSZ055-058-110200-
COFFEY-OSAGE-
814 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THROUGH 900 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE LEBO AND WAVERLY. MOTORISTS ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 167 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

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