Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THIS FLOW WILL PARALLEL SURFACE FRONT NOW STALLED FROM
WEST OF WICHITA TO NEAR BEATRICE.  THUS...LITTLE MOVEMENT TO FRONT
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.  PERSISTENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT COUPLED WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.  WHILE SURFACE PATTERN SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DEPARTING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...MOST PERSISTENT AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COINCIDES
WITH POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT AND WOULD THUS EXPECT INITIAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ABILENE TO
WASHINGTON AND MARYSVILLE BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.

CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...WITH ML CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.  WITH
LIMITED STORM STRUCTURE...DEEP HIGH REFLECTIVITIES WITHIN THE STORM
ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAIN. SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES SHOULD INCREASE THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  WITH BOUNDARY CONTINUING IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN.  GFS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...ALBEIT IN UNREALISTIC BULLSEYES.  HAVE
CONTINUED 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM H5 SOUTHWEST
FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE HEAVY RAIN.  ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER / PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WEDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
WEST...PROVIDING A MORE MERIDIONAL PATTERN...AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO BE PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE TOP CWA. SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAST THIS PUSH WILL
TAKE PLACE WITH THE NAM AND GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC / UKMET.
BROUGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. NOT A BIG PUSH OF COOL AIR...SO
EXPECT TEMPS BE NEAR CLIMO NORMALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD...PUSHING MAIN
DYNAMICS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAY WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGH DIGS
IN. EC AND GFS HINT AT SOME ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT / MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO JUSTIFY
CHANGING DRY FORECAST. WARMING TREND SEEMS CERTAIN...BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BUT MAY HAVE TO GO HIGHER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS IF PATTERN LOOKS MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-302100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
400 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD. STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST EAST OF A
SENECA TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE MONDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS ALREADY SATURATED THE SOIL IN SOME LOCALES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH.

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SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
813 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

KSZ009-300200-
WASHINGTON-
813 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THROUGH 900 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HOLLENBERG.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
832 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

KSZ034-300215-
OTTAWA-
832 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THROUGH 915 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH AT 20 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OTTAWA COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME
COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE TESCOTT AND ADA.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
838 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             9 NNW CLIFTON           39.69N 97.34W
05/29/2006  E0.88 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE