Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 271105
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSC197-271345-
WABAUNSEE-
601 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR
WABAUNSEE COUNTY...

AT 557 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WABAUNSEE COUNTY. A TRAINED SPOTTER IN DOVER 
REPORTED 2.7 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 3 AM 
AND 515 AM. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN THIS MORNING FROM NEAR KEENE TO HESSDALE TO ESKRIDGE. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAPLE HILL...PAXICO AND MCFARLAND

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 346.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

LAT...LON 3919 9609 3917 9607 3916 9610 3914 9609
      3909 9595 3874 9594 3874 9637 3882 9638
      3883 9649 3904 9649 3905 9638 3916 9638
      3917 9627 3920 9624

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 271204
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
700 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSC197-271345-
WABAUNSEE-
700 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR
WABAUNSEE COUNTY...

AT 656 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED 
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ENDING BUT RAINFALL TOTALS OF NEARLY FOUR INCHES 
WERE INDICATED BY THE RADAR. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN THE EASTERN 
PART OF THE COUNTY. FLOODING COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN THE RURAL 
AREAS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAPLE HILL...PAXICO AND MCFARLAND

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 346.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3919 9609 3917 9607 3916 9610 3914 9609
      3909 9595 3874 9594 3874 9637 3882 9638
      3883 9649 3904 9649 3905 9638 3916 9638
      3917 9627 3920 9624

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 271238
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
738 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSC197-271248-
WABAUNSEE-
738 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WABAUNSEE COUNTY...

AT 738 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVCIE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 346.

LAT...LON 3919 9609 3917 9607 3916 9610 3914 9609
      3909 9595 3874 9594 3874 9637 3882 9638
      3883 9649 3904 9649 3905 9638 3916 9638
      3917 9627 3920 9624

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
426 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS REMAIN TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AROUND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI TO NORTHERN
TEXAS. CONVECTION HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT VIA LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON PERSISTENCY OF STORMS...WITH
RATES VARYING FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. STEADY MOVEMENT OF STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS KEPT TRAINING
FAIRLY LIMITED SO FAR.

AGAIN THIS MORNING...HARD TO PINPOINT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEAKENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE WAVE WILL CAUSE PRESSURES TO FALL BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE WEAKENING SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. DETAILS ON HOW THIS
TRANSPIRES REMAIN QUITE UNCLEAR HOWEVER...AND THIS WILL GREATLY
AFFECT THE OUTCOME. THE GFS SEEMED TO HANDLE THE EVENING
PRECIPITATION THE BEST...BUT IT SUFFERS FROM MAJOR CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF ITS RUN IN
OKLAHOMA...CAUSING A STRONG 850MB CYCLONE TO DEVELOP THERE AND
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM WAS WELL OVERDONE WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER EARLY ON...BUT HAS A MORE
REASONABLE 850MB DEPICTION. BOTH AGREE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR CONTINUED
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. HAVE LEFT SOME MENTION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
CONCERN FOR TRAINING STORMS.

THE MORE POTENT THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN COMES TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS DYNAMICS INCREASE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE
MOVES IN. IF CYCLOGENESIS IS FOCUSED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS PER THE
NAM...COULD SEE VERY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND SLOW MESO-BETA ELEMENT MOTIONS PER NAM
SOUNDINGS. THE GFS WOULD FOCUS PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTHEAST...BUT
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN ITS EARLY FORECAST ISSUES. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS NOT. GIVEN THE SPOTTY NATURE OF WET
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURES AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT DO PLAN TO ISSUE
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESF/ TO RAISE AWARENESS. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION HOWEVER.

THE UPPER TROFS FINAL STAGES OVER THE REGION REMAIN IN
QUESTION...BUT MANY SOLUTIONS LINGER IT IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES DIFFICULT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LAST FEW
NAM RUNS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C. VAST MAJORITY OF OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS 3-5C WARMER. THE NAM SEEMS TO GENERATE THIS
COOLER AIR UNDER THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM IN NEBRASKA AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES WITH STRATUS LOOKING FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER.

REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK STILL APPEARS DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING
TREND...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR FROPA FOR THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGES MADE
TO THESE PERIODS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
425 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
425 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.