Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2006

UPDATE FOR AVIATION

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES THIS EVENING TO COVER CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE HI-LINE AND HEADING SOUTH FROM SW ALBERTA INTO
GLACIER...TOOLE AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. STORMS ARE ISOLATED OVER
HILL/LIBERTY COUNTIES BUT ARE NEARLY STATIONARY AND LIKELY
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT FROM MT UP NORTH INTO ALBERTA AND EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT GLACIER AND TOOLE COUNTIES LATER THIS
EVENING. POPS AND WEATHER HAVE BEEN UPDATED IN THESE AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
AIRMASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILLIAMSON DC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 232 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2006)

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE TREASURE STATE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80 AND
LOWER 90S. ONLY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEIER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE INTO SW MT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING IT NE ON THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THESE TWO MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS SUCH THAT BY SUN NIGHT THE GFS BRINGS A COLD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WARM UPPER RIDGE. TEND TO
DISCOUNT THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT TENDS TO DISAGREE WITH OTHER MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE AVERAGE. FOR THIS REASON WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND IGNORE LATEST GFS FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 70S. ANOTHER DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WAS
WITH A SHORTWAVE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF BUT FEEL GFS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG.
STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  60  93 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  54  86  57  90 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  61  92  62  94 /  20  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  91 /  30  10  10  20
WEY  42  82  43  81 /  40  20  20  20
DLN  53  88  54  89 /  30  10  10  20
HVR  59  93  62  98 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  53  86  57  90 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HOENISCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BLANK
AVIATION...WILLIAMSON DC

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
406 PM MDT MON JUL 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS   46.55N 110.90W
07/03/2006  E0.25 INCH       MEAGHER            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL...AND 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN AS THE STORM
            MOVED THROUGH.

&&

BRUSDA