Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO EASTERN
MONTANA ALLOWING FOR A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HAS INITIATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA REMAINS UNDER
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES TONIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. EMANUEL

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GET SHUNTED EAST AND DEAMPLIFY AS HEIGHTS
LOWER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. A GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL THEN SETUP OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOW CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECT
FROM THE PARENT LOW. WITH THE MAIN LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1805Z.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE GENERATING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND SPREADING THEM NORTHEAST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES PRODUCING HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THESE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR NORTH AND EAST OF A
KGPI-KHLN-KLVM LINE. STORMS WILL DECREASE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM INTO THE EVENING...WITH MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...SHIFTING BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND IT.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER SOME AREA
STREAMS/RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOWMELT OR RELEASES FROM
UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS. TWO DIFFERENT RIVER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  83  52  86 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  48  81  49  84 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  53  82  52  85 /  10  20  10  20
BZN  47  80  46  83 /  20  20  20  20
WEY  37  73  37  75 /  20  20  20  40
DLN  48  80  46  82 /  10  10  10  30
HVR  52  83  54  90 /  40  10  20  20
LWT  48  80  51  85 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR A PORTION OF NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA.

&&

SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...COULSTON

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
132 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2006

MTZ012>015-046-048>055-211200-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
EASTERN PONDERA-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-
JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
132 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THEN INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THEREFORE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA...AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
MDT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ009>011-044-045-047-211200-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-TOOLE-LIBERTY-
BLAINE-
132 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY EVEN BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND DARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008-211200-
BEAVERHEAD-
132 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHEAST. A FEW
STORMS MAY EVEN BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY DARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
223 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     DILLON                  45.22N 112.63W
05/20/2006  M53.00 MPH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            DILLON RAWS LOCATION

1015 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW GRANT              44.93N 113.18W
05/20/2006  M54.00 MPH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            BRENNER RAWS LOCATION

0130 PM     HAIL             25 N BOZEMAN            46.04N 111.04W
05/20/2006  E0.25 INCH       GALLATIN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF HAIL.

0135 PM     HAIL             5 W BOZEMAN             45.68N 111.15W
05/20/2006  E0.25 INCH       GALLATIN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF HAIL.

0145 PM     HAIL             20 S RINGLING           45.98N 110.81W
05/20/2006  E0.50 INCH       GALLATIN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED NEAR WILSALL WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

SAUCIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
345 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     HAIL             15 NE GERALDINE         47.76N 110.04W
05/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       CHOUTEAU           MT   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING HALF THE GROUND. WIND GUSTS
            ESTIMATED 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
354 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     HAIL             LEWISTOWN               47.06N 109.43W
05/20/2006  M0.25 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS GUSTING TO 44 MPH.

&&

SAUCIER

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