High Wind Watch 18, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1053 AM MST TUE DEC 12 2006

UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION ONLY

.UPDATE...
A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS ARE SLOW TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A BIT OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...STRONG WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE WARNED AREA BY NOON AND THEN CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK...BUT
I DID RAISE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AS THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONG WINDS AND MOUNTAIN PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE.
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MARIAS PASS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE LIKELY UPGRADED TO
A WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD WARNING LATER TODAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 70 KNOTS. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1753Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL HELP SUSTAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 435 AM MST TUE DEC 12 2006)

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. FOR SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THIS PATTERN.
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.

THIS FIRST WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MONTANA-ALBERTA BORDER TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SNOW OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM AGAIN RIDES ALONG THE MONTANA-ALBERTA BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER
THAN TODAY SYSTEM AND WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND STRONGER WINDS FOR THE PLAINS. WILL HOLD OFF FROM
ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SINCE WE HAVE A
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT AND PLUS THE SYSTEM IS FOUR PERIODS OUT.
WILL MAKE SURE THIS EVENT IS MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. MEIER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE AREA FRIDAY.
ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER FRIDAY PROVIDING A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONG WINDS. WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH COLDER AIR
RETURNING TO THE AREA SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PLAINS MONDAY. A RIDGE
FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO NOSE INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. IF TIMING REMAINS UNCHANGED THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE NEXT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SAUCIER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  32  52  36 /   0   0  20   0
CTB  47  28  49  31 /   0   0  20   0
HLN  47  29  46  34 /  20  10  30  10
BZN  44  20  43  26 /  30  10  40  20
WEY  34  15  36  17 /  60  40  90  70
DLN  43  26  42  30 /  30  10  40  20
HVR  48  23  48  31 /   0   0  20   0
LWT  48  28  47  33 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ009-010-
048.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET MTZ009-048.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRUSDA
LONG TERM...EMANUEL/SAUCIER
AVIATION...CAMP

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

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